Updated! Feisty Matthew Expected to Intensify Some Over the Gulf Stream. Tracing the FL Coast or Will it Make Landfall?

Again note direction NNW at 10 MPH

115 MPH

964 MB

9:30 AM Thoughts.

Note how the NW side of Matthew is reaching out towards FL

That means weather can arrive in South Florida early.

Also you can see below the front is trying to lift the Cane.

How strong is the front?

How strong is the ridge?

Do not focus on 5 day or 7 day.

Focus on the 3 day.

Do NOT get lost in the long discussion.

The models that go loopy.

This is the cone you need to know in FL

Storms love to stall over the Gulfstream E of FL

Storms love to zoom and merge with cold fronts.

Watch the loop below.

You can see the edge of the high, dry moving West across Cuba.

The High to the East of it moving slowly a bit to the West.

Matthew following the moisture feed NNW.

It's a very simple forecast.

Difficult because it is so close to the coast.

It basically wants to trace the coast.

Cape Kennedy may be sticking out too far.

Models online.
www.spaghettimodels.com
Has top left models from www.tropicaltidbits.com

5 AM Cone. 

Updates at 11.

Discussion from NWS Miami.

Most relevant discussion from NHC.

Difficulties of a Hurricane tracing the coastline.

And discussion from NWS out of Melbourne, FL

A voice of reason always.

https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross/posts/1196747743696572:0

IMPT PART

Decision Day for South Florida.

And Central and NorthEast Florida

Note TS Warnings Across the Coast.

Recent recon in the plane....

Found it weaker after the passage over Cuba.

Expected to intensify over the Gulf Stream.

If you live in Miami you should be prepared.

That goes for FLL WPB and Vero Beach.

The whole area knows the drill.

You should be gassed up.

Money out of the ATM

Water out the wazoo.

Have your plan.

Carry out your plan.

My son posted this last night on SnapChat

Because he's my son.

When I showed concern to an older son...

...he said not to worry on the younger son.

Worrying when you are far away comes easy.

Especially with restless kids.

But he's got gas in his car...

On the positive side the safest side to be on is the SW.

And this has been a right sided storm... so far.

NRL Map is below:

So those are my early thoughts.

NC seems to possibly be dodging the bullet IF

Models verify and show it looping right...

...towards Nicole.

Sniffing around and then deciding...

Nah don't like Nicole enough..

And coming back to Florida for more.

Yeah I stayed up til 2 am for those models...

Not quiet a Fujiwara as much as a "nah don't really want to"

Stay tuned...

I'll update around Noon.

And I'll be updating as warrants throughout the day.

The eye will come back fast over warm water.

It did not die over Cuba.

It came off with 115 MPH winds.

And suddenly it's NW side looks feisty.

Almost like it's giving the finger to Florida.

Or waving perhaps.

Time will tell.

When a Hurricane is this close to the coast.

There are a lot of options.

Only out to sea is a good one.

Multiple places could see landfall.

Stay tuned....

Be in place soon if you are in South Florida.

Traffic may get crazy so don't wait.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Everyone has a thought... 

From Jim Williams at Hurricane City.

He's big on models ...not just EURO and GFS

Perhaps Margaritaville Hollywood Beach will get a test..

...see how prepared it is for a Hurricane.