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You can see winds along front better now.
Gradient sets up between Front and Matthew
Those winds are streaming out ahead of front SW
Matthew moving NW
Site on www.spaghettimodels.com
Matthew sliding along Andros in the Bahamas.
Watch the way the eye moves.
It wobbles vs perfect movement.
Up then over, then up then over.
A wobble West while it's doing the "over" part.
Means which city gets the worst of Matthew.
Water Vapor Loop shows the why of the Cone.
Front moving towards.
Matthew moving around periphery of the High to it's East.
Discussion shows they believe this will intensify.
They do expect this to be 145 MPH again.
Again the Gulfstream is VERY warm.
Shear from approaching front could keep it in check.
But shear is not supposed to affect it yet.
Traces the coast...
...some city gets unlucky.
One eye wall wobble West changes everything.
See orientation of the Florida coast N of Palm Beach.
Jupiter could get the eye wall ...
...but Port Salermo to the North doesn't.
It's that dicey.
And the eye of a Major Hurricane rolls like dice...
Not like a little round golf ball.
From a distance it looks like a straight line.
Up close at ground level, dicey.
And it can keep moving a slight degree for a while.
One degree can make a difference between...
Golden Beach and Sunny Isles.
Going up to Vero Beach...
A Nature Preserve...
..or a row of Condos.
Or it bounces off the coast and yet...
...coast gets massive strong wind.
Loss of power.
Miami Beach Matthew Morning
A friend of mine evacuated to Tower 41.
Big strong condo outside the cone of Hurricane Winds.
She sent me video and those palms are really blowing.
And the storm is far away.
A city shut down.
One car on the road at 9 AM..
She can barely hold camera on high floor.
But it's not going there but marching by.
On it's way somewhere.
I'll update really soon.
I need a good shower.
Staying up late watching loops.
Took Tylenol PM to fall asleep.
I'll be updating live all day.
Will Palm Beach to Vero Beach get it?
Or will Space Coast up the way get it?
Lets be clear...
STORMS inside the HURRICANE
SWIRLING AROUND THE EYE
MOVING NW TOWARDS THE COAST.
Those bands can have mircobursts.
During Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach at 34th Street...
... one hit a tall angled fancy roof.
The roof took sail and landed in the neighbors pool.
The whole roof... I saw it.
One microburst in one strong squall inside a band.
Combine forward speed of band spinning with the wind.
A lot of math there but it gets dicey.
People who have been through Major Hurricanes know this..
They watch every wobble of the eye.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. wider view... looks easy from up in space
Not at Ground Level..
One Spanish tile off a roof at 100 MPH..
Slices into your screen porch..
...breaks a window.
It's far away still in the Bahamas.
Florida is hunkering down.
Mike adding pages on www.spaghettimodels.com
And Mike should be Live on Facebook off and on all day.
Stay tuned, updating soon