Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Updated !! Cat 3 Major Matthew Headed NW Towards FL... Pay Attention as Per President Obama. Heed 3 Day Cone.. SC NC GA Later. Models Closer to Coast..

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That is an intensifying hurricane.
Barometer is dropping.
Winds should increase at 5.
Wind field also increases as it moves away from Cuba.

Please pay attention.

A long band is developing.
A trunk reaching out NW
In advance of the storm.
When it hits land people are going to panic.
It's not Matthew but the trunk getting your attention.
Squally, bad weather.

Matthew has a solid core visible above.
Banding growing.
Please take it seriously.

This update is really for North Dade County.

Miami Dade County is TWICE the size of Rhode Island.
Yet NHC seems to treat it as one compact area.
This is a problem for people living in North Dade.
If you live in Aventura, NMB ... 
Pretend you live in you usually do.
Broward has a Hurricane Warning.

People in North Dade such as NMB near Broward Line..
Pretend you live in Broward not Dade County.
Miami Dade is a huge county. 

My family putting up shutters.
You got them... may as well use them.
You got much to lose by not...
All you lose by putting them up is some time.

Could easily be a Cat 4 in the next 24 hours.
Matthew has a history of Rapid Intensification.

Aventura, NMB are basically South Broward.
Even if NHC hasn't put up Hurricane Warnings..
Say you get several hours of 70 MPH winds...
...with higher gusts as high as 90 MPH or 100 MPH
It's your home, your property and your lives.
NHC may or may not change those warnings.
But as the storm itself changes..
The wind field expands those winds get closer to land.
If it takes the East side and you miss the storm..
...take the shutters down.

This is for North Dade obviously NOT Homestead.
I'm sure Miami Dade County is way bigger than Rhode Island.
Twice as big and the North part of Miami Dade...
..should expect what Broward County is expecting.
Hurricane Force Winds possible.
Stronger Gusts.
Storms this year have all intensified closer to land.
Julia with a similar track formed OVER land.

$ $ $

Gusts higher...

Look at the beauty in the determined Hurricane Matthew.
After coming off of Cuba he's beautiful.
Picture perfect.
Wound up with a very visible eye.
A long band on the WEST side curled up...
... like a fighter.
Will he deliver a direct punch to Florida?
Or a glancing hard blow?

Reminds me in ways of Hurricane Cleo..
Rather than up Biscayne Blvd...
...he could stay off shore or go straight up A1A

Close up of Matthew on Visible 

In Motion the whole story is here:

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The front, the ridges, the hurricane are seen below:

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Watch Matthew moving onto this loop.
Climbing up from Cuba.
Moving NW towards Florida.

The 11 PM Cone is an extrapolation of the previous cone. Their discussion is an excellent read and you should read it. Basically explains their 2 best models looped over night and they have adjusted their cone somewhat on the 4th and 5th day taking those model runs into consideration. I urge you in Florida to really only look at the 3 day and do not be distracted by the 5 day as that can and may change down the road. Just as the models changed wildly last night, they can snap back or show a smaller loop or a stall off the East coast of FL somewhere South of NC and that part of the equation is not currently important. What is important is that Matthew is headed NW towards Florida including South, Central and East North Florida.. From Miami to Jax everyone needs to pay close attention especially from Palm Beach up to Melbourne, Jupiter and any area that juts out a bit to the East more than other areas. Every mile makes a difference in whether Matthew stays off shore or clips Vero Beach. See new models that just came out discussed below.

What is important is the high to the left (West) of Matthew is reaching down and scooping it up. And there is a ridge to the East of Matthew pushing West. To the North there is an area where the ridge could snap shut and join together. For those reading Tropical Romance Novels about Matthew and Nicole I urge you to see where the highs could hook up and ignore Nicole drama for now. Yes, Nicole may have made a small difference but the interaction between the two high pressure systems is the real drama.

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Watch the blue areas ... counter intuitively they are dry not moist areas.
Hurricanes do not like Highs they move towards low pressure.
The low pressure is for now in between the two highs.

11 AM 3 Day Cone

History is littered with hurricanes that stalled and looped in the Bahamas.
Focus on Florida for now.
If you live in GA or SC Pay Attention to the next 2 cones.
And as for NC I have much to say on that as well later.

The discussion shows the details.
Matthew is moving NW and will for a while.
Tracing the coastline...or making landfall.

Matthew did not move East or North.
The Cone has a minor adjustment as the cone narrows.
People think that means the storm moved.
The storm is moving NORTHWEST.

If you live in the shaded areas below anywhere...

NC has a lesser chance now of a direct impact.
BUT NC is still in it.

Wind probabilities:

People say things like:
"Florida is getting it then it's looping out to sea"
That's wrong. It may loop and then what?
It may stall and do a small loop.
It may loop back and hit Florida on the second pass.
Or loop up towards Ocean Isle Beach NC
Or it could loop and then go out to sea.
The last thing you need is a Major Hurricane looping...
...with steering currents broken.

My ex husband sent me this image.
Last night at 2 AM models did look like this a bit....
Or it felt that way.. 

Kind of a joke but it looked like scribble scrabble.
What do you do when your two best models act like that?
You make a cone, wait patiently to see what they do next.
That is what the NHC did on their 5 day cone.

Save that .. compare and contrast in 3 days time.

So looking at satellite imagery.

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It's going to be stronger at this point soon.
Mark my words on that!
Stunning storm from an academic point of view.
I have several kids in the Miami area... me I'm watching carefully!


Green on Funktop on N side of Matthew showing up now.
Matthew can easily become a Cat 4 Hurricane Again at this rate.

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IF that continues out.

Some important voices to listen to...

New models out and they are closer to land.
What if this happens?
Plausible it could happen.
Rare from a Climo point of view.
That bugs me but worth respecting possibility.

It has been a Major Cane for 5 days. Rare.
And it's moving over HOT Water in the Gulfstream.
Can make landfall easily as a Major Cane somewhere..

Will talk on 1893 Hurricane later ... another post.
First dealing with Florida..

For anyone that has any travel plans on I-95 ...
From NC to FL... check on changes often.
This storm like Julia could travel up I-95.

I saw Julia up close and personal.
In Ormond Beach hotels had water in ocean front rooms...
...from the rain coming in around windows, balcony doors.
That was a nothing, small storm compared to this...
A Major Hurricane just off shore can do massive damage.
Especially depending on the timing of it's forward speed.
If it nears a ridge to the North of it forming...
Talking on massive rainfall totals along the FL coast.

Slightest bobble West and this graphic moves West.
On the NHC site but rarely shown as much as the cone.

Regarding models.
Many people use Tropical Tidbits.
Some forget to give Levi Cowan credit sadly.

So whether quoting Levi or Mike or Me.. 
Please give credit.
I have said off the wall things on my blog ...
and seen TWC use that phrase right after.
Things so off the wall using word for word phrases.
Happens but just saying ...
..I know imitation is the highest form of flattery....
Give Tropical Tidbits credit please!
Levi works hard on computer graphics...
Everyone these days quotes him.
But sometimes they do not give him credit.

Appreciate and respect the source.

Example I often show the http address when I cut and paste.

Look at that green BAMM Hmnnnn

More Model fun...

Back to the Bottom Line:

What do you do today in South Florida today?
Finish shopping. 
Doing preparations.
Finalizing your plans.
Tomorrow... ACT.
For some that means later tonight.
If you have to travel out of an evacuation zone..

If you are a total model geek... Jim Williams discuss the models.
No one does that better.
He goes over ALL the models.
Many models you never heard of but are important.

I'll be back all day.
I'll be updating in real time so check back.
I'll put new thoughts at the top.

Obviously I'll do a bigger update after the 5 PM Cone.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter live...all day.

Ps The RED is the dangerous part of the storm.
Note weather will move into the Florida area..
Ahead of Matthew.
Do not panic .. 
..take it as a reminder.
It's moving NW towards you.
Obama is talking now live on air.
Live from FEMA HQ.. his message:
"Pay Attention!"

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