A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Updated !! Cat 3 Major Matthew Headed NW Towards FL... Pay Attention as Per President Obama. Heed 3 Day Cone.. SC NC GA Later. Models Closer to Coast..
That is an intensifying hurricane.
Barometer is dropping.
Winds should increase at 5.
Wind field also increases as it moves away from Cuba.
Please pay attention.
A long band is developing.
A trunk reaching out NW
In advance of the storm.
When it hits land people are going to panic.
It's not Matthew but the trunk getting your attention.
Squally, bad weather.
Matthew has a solid core visible above.
Please take it seriously.
People in North Dade such as NMB near Broward Line..
Pretend you live in Broward not Dade County.
Miami Dade is a huge county.
My family putting up shutters.
You got them...
...you may as well use them.
You got much to lose by not...
All you lose by putting them up is some time.
Could easily be a Cat 4 in the next 24 hours.
Matthew has a history of Rapid Intensification.
Aventura, NMB are basically South Broward.
Even if NHC hasn't put up Hurricane Warnings..
Say you get several hours of 70 MPH winds...
...with higher gusts as high as 90 MPH or 100 MPH
It's your home, your property and your lives.
NHC may or may not change those warnings.
But as the storm itself changes..
The wind field expands those winds get closer to land.
If it takes the East side and you miss the storm..
...take the shutters down.
This is for North Dade obviously NOT Homestead.
I'm pretty sure Miami Dade County is way bigger than Rhode Island.
$ $ $
Look at the beauty in the determined Hurricane Matthew.
After coming off of Cuba he's beautiful.
Wound up with a very visible eye.
A long band on the WEST side curled up...
... like a fighter.
Will he deliver a direct punch to Florida?
Or a glancing hard blow?
Reminds me in ways of Hurricane Cleo..
Rather than up Biscayne Blvd...
...he could stay off shore or go straight up A1A
Close up of Matthew on Visible
In Motion the whole story is here:
The front, the ridges, the hurricane are seen below:
Watch Matthew moving onto this loop.
Climbing up from Cuba.
Moving NW towards Florida.
The 11 PM Cone is an extrapolation of the previous cone. Their discussion is an excellent read and you should read it. Basically explains their 2 best models looped over night and they have adjusted their cone somewhat on the 4th and 5th day taking those model runs into consideration. I urge you in Florida to really only look at the 3 day and do not be distracted by the 5 day as that can and may change down the road. Just as the models changed wildly last night, they can snap back or show a smaller loop or a stall off the East coast of FL somewhere South of NC and that part of the equation is not currently important. What is important is that Matthew is headed NW towards Florida including South, Central and East North Florida.. From Miami to Jax everyone needs to pay close attention especially from Palm Beach up to Melbourne, Jupiter and any area that juts out a bit to the East more than other areas. Every mile makes a difference in whether Matthew stays off shore or clips Vero Beach. See new models that just came out discussed below.
What is important is the high to the left (West) of Matthew is reaching down and scooping it up. And there is a ridge to the East of Matthew pushing West. To the North there is an area where the ridge could snap shut and join together. For those reading Tropical Romance Novels about Matthew and Nicole I urge you to see where the highs could hook up and ignore Nicole drama for now. Yes, Nicole may have made a small difference but the interaction between the two high pressure systems is the real drama.
Watch the blue areas ... counter intuitively they are dry not moist areas.
Hurricanes do not like Highs they move towards low pressure.
The low pressure is for now in between the two highs.
11 AM 3 Day Cone
History is littered with hurricanes that stalled and looped in the Bahamas.
Focus on Florida for now.
If you live in GA or SC Pay Attention to the next 2 cones.
And as for NC I have much to say on that as well later.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm