Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Matthew Eye Visible... Will it Intensify Overnight? Headed Towards FL. Will Space Coast Get Their First Major Cane? Or Strong Cat 2? Only Time Will Tell...

NHC Cone 11 PM

I'll show the 5 Day Cone Later.
The 3 Day is the important Cone.
First things first.
Florida is first.

Showing this image as Matthew is now showing up.
Close to Florida.
Moisture to the N of it.

Famous fast moving Water Vapor Loop

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Matthew taking the easy way as most Canes do..
Note Nicole to it's East.
Ridge pushing West.
You can see the moisture feed streaming N 
You can see how this might loop... or stall a bit.

Close up

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Looks pretty good to me.
Better than it did.
Eye very visible there.

NRL Map shows the same story.

NRL Map. Shows track touching the coast with a landfall.
Also shows it close to the Carolinas.
Then the big possible loop.

Home Run as Canadian Map shows the same.

Now the question is will it be a Major Cane?
Reason I ask is Hurricane History.
No Major Cane has hit that area...
...why now?

I'm big into Climo.
It's boring sometimes but more often right than wrong.
So stay tuned.

Keeping this brief and I'll update in the morning. By then we will see if Matthew has intensified or not. The discussion from the NHC explains their thought process. Beven does a good job, please read it. The point I consider most salient is shown below as a teaser.

Future intensity and path show here as well:

Please read it for yourself. 
It's easy and you learn much.

Again showing this loop so that you can see where the real storm winds are vs the cloud signature.

jsl-animated.gif (1120×480)

Red dangerous winds.
White the envelope, the pocket, the clouds.

There is reason to worry on the Georgia coast and SC coast.

Wind Probabilities

High all the way up thru Myrtle Beach and beyond.

I received a Tropical Storm Alert from my complex.
They are very proactive. 
Raleigh only has a 34
But they put out info in case.

And that is how it should be.

Better safe than sorry.
Old advice. Good advice.

You lose a few hours or time making basic preparation.

Brad Panovich is in NC.
IF he can talk on Florida...
So can the rest of us.

I promised the 5 Day Cone...

Julia looped why not Matthew?
And Matthew is going where Julia went...

I will discuss chances for problems in GA SC and NC trust me.

Going to bed. 
I'll update in the morning.

This is no longer a Cat 5 Hurricane.
But it IS a dangerous hurricane.

And a killer Hurricane.
The name Matthew won't remain on the list.
Death toll rising in Haiti sadly...

Watch the water vapor loop.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
That secondary front is moving West to East.
The path for Matthew is very clear.
Not carved in stone but in moisture.

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Close call for Florida.
I chased Julia on my way to Florida for the wedding.
That part of the coast got surprised and slammed.
Matthew will be much stronger.
A Major Cane?
Time will tell..

For Mike 


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