Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, April 11, 2016

Epac Beginning to Percolate. Possible Tropical Tease in Atlantic. Strong Severe Wxr Moving Through the South. Time Keeps on Slipping Into the Future.

Randomly beautiful picture of double rainbow... just wanted to share.

Just touching base a bit here on a few things worth thinking on while trying to wish winter away while you are wondering on the hurricane season.

That long blue line where an El Nino is often found is a sign..
...of things to come.
Think of them like cousins.
Ones always causing mischief somewhere.

This is a forecast for what comes after El Nino leaves.
A moderate La Nina has been forecast by some models.
Some reliable models I'll add.
What else do you see above?
Water not that hot out in the tropical Atlantic.
But... awfully hot close in off the East Coast.
Warm to hot in the GOM.

Something to think on... still a long range model.

Today in the tropics:

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

2 areas worth mentioning with regard to the tropics.
In the Epac there is a flare up of convection.
It's sort of a flash in the pan.
A drop of spin and then it fizzles out.

In the Atlantic at the tail end of that mighty cold front....
...there's an area lingering moving South or oozing about.

Let's look in color.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

It's hard to see. 
Adding this image in here as it highlights the area in question.

It's a little early for the Epac to get a named system.
But before that happens you see one wave after another flaring up...
Until one finally finds it's groove and gets a name.
Keep watching.
Epac begins May 15th ...not so far away.

Small purple splotch on the 24 to 48 maps.

Don't run out and start screaming Hurricane.
Someone might book you a room at the Home for the Tropically Insane.
Just be aware we are getting closer to that time of year.

I wouldn't rule out something teasing in the Atlantic a bit.
Tail end of an old stalled out frontal boundary.
Another front is active up the road though.

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See the yellow low at the top of the screen up in Canada.
Sort of whipping the front around like a colorful lasso.

I am beginning to be concerned that the Gulf of Mexico may see action this year.
Still too early to coax those forecasts out of my crystal ball ;)
But you watch patterns and study previous years with similar patterns.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on twitter

Video below was recommended for me... so I watched.
I'm good at taking direction... 
Well done. Makes you think on life, time... 
But in our world time moves one day at a time forward.
Day by day we move closer to the Hurricane Season.

A good read on a reanalysis of Hurricane Camille.


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