Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Time to Start Watching the Tropics... But Models Are Doing a Two Step While Dreaming Tropical. That time of year... Hurricane Season 63 Days Away... Could Have Early Development. Possible... Next Storm B Name. Hmnn

Earlier in the week Rob from put out discussion.
Model discussion and some thought on tropical systems possibilities.
Yes I did say that as models are definitely in dreaming on tropics mode.

Seems the models are flip flopping.
Lots of various stylish solutions this time of year.

Again GFS changed it's mind.
Euro chimed it with it's own stylish solution.
Ensemble models....
The system moved faster than expected.
It landed in the Atlantic.
Atlanta didn't get rain but the Atlantic did.

Check the water vapor loops below:

System 1 moved through. System 2?

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Let's look at the bigger picture....

What's going on in Bahamas and down to the SW and into Atlantic?

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Another view...


Let's look at our tropical orange juice loop (my not official name)

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)
It has a more complicated name but shows us what might be developing.
The above two loops and many others at

Why is this tropically topical?
There has been discussion of early quasi tropical development soon.

 "GFS model guidance continues to be quite consistent in the forecast development of some type of sub-tropical system somewhere between Puerto Rico and Bermuda late next week into next weekend. "

Above is from

Welcome to that time of year that no one can figure out what the models are implying and they don't agree and spit out random options. It's a messy brain exercise like the one below. Makes your head hurt unless you are a great mathematician...which by the way meteorologists have to be to get a degree from a great program at a big University.

Did you understand that?
Bet not... 
Neither can most figure out the models this time of year.
You may as well flip a coin.
I can't really tell you because the pattern is not set in stone yet.
It's winter, it's spring, it feels like summer.
Boots, Sketchers or Sandals?

Stay tuned for what happens in the real world next.
My advice... pay close attention to your phone weather app.
Make sure it's set for breaking news and warnings.
Local TV stations are best as location is everything.
Watch TWC.. The Weather Channel or ANY good Weather Channel.
Twitter ..fine your favorites for fast breaking updates.
@bobbistorm aka @tropicalupdate
Surf reports or beach reports: @dadabuh
@crownweather his site has a subscription his thoughts are on Twitter
Hurricane Season Duh... @hurricanecity says it all
@nws has it all.. find your local NWS on Twitter and get real time updates
@jimcantore ...he is Mr. Weather if somethings happening big . . . 
In Miami and South Florida my weather drug of choice @philferro7

Find your own for your area. 
Again make sure your alerts are on for your phone app.

When and if something "tropical" forms I'll be all over it trust me.
Keep watching.
 Know that for now it's worth note the models are dreaming tropical.
That's a sign of the times changing even if nothing develops.

Besos BobbiStorm
Sweet Tropical Dreams
@bobbistorm on Twitter.


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