Kate Forming in the Bahamas? 70% Chance in 5 Days (or less) by NHC. November Storms..

Notice when something really forms you don't have to ask...

Where?

It's obvious and has a red path into the Bahamas 

Introducing Invest 94L

My problem with this Invest ..possibly Kate is this...

...moving fast right now.

Then again should form in the hot incubated Joaquin waters of the Bahamas.

As it moves away from the land masses.

Into the warm waters.

With what seems to be a defined center.

Why am I not worried about Miami with that NHC Red Cone

The front infused with energy from Invest 93L is hauling SE...

Should pick up Invest 94L and take her NE

That would be the kind of tropical party to expect this year...

...and in November.

IF a hurricane or tropical storm is going to hit the US in November.

It's almost always from the SW going NE across Florida.

On this day in history goes to NWS Key West

Personally I'd like to see a front sweep all the way through the Carolinas.

We've been playing peek a boo with the sun all week.

I went out of Ice Cream last night... no leggings, sandals.

Jean skirt and tee shirt. Sweet.

The water in the Bahamas is... warmish.

Let's go with warmish.

Not cold but not as hot as it is in September.

Panel below shows the water temps.

Thanks www.spaghettimodels.com

That's the reason the models keep it on the low side.

Tropical Storm Kate... but not Hurricane Kate.

I call that panel "pieces of you" because.

It made me think of the song. Duh.

No really the truth is when you study a system.. Invest... 

You look at so many different pieces of the situation.

Water temperature plays a big part.

CLIMO plays a HUGE part.

Other features such as cold fronts and Upper Level Lows.

Steering currents at all levels of the environment.

There are many pieces to the puzzle.

First we have to see it form...for sure.

Next we have to see what the front does... 

Will Kate really make it all the way to Great Britain?

Hmnnnn?

Tropical Meteorologists been wondering...

Weather people been watching...

Will Kate form?

Will 2015 see Kate in the Atlantic?

God makes storms to paraphrase a song.

Weather conditions... upper level.. lower levels.

We write about it. We talk. We shoot the tropical breeze.

It's what we do...

NHC says 70% in 5 Days 

www.canetalk.com 

Yes there are still message boards ;)

If I was a betting person I'd say a TS in way less than 5 days...

What might be interesting about having a named system tomorrow is...

NHC is doing an UPDATE ...

...so Kate could work as a trial run for the 2016 Hurricane Season.

You know a test drive...

This is a Bahama System so far.

Hurricane City is watching San Salvador.

Crown Weather is saying Kate.

Mike is having fun on Facebook...

...well his friends are having fun.

I like fun.

Join the discussion....

https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdates/photos/a.10150182050932367.321548.88134562366/10153610457787367/?type=3

http://crownweather.com/index.php/invest-94-l-is-expected-to-become-tropical-storm-kate-as-it-tracks-over-the-bahamas-today-through-monday-severe-weather-with-tornadoes-are-likely-on-wednesday-across-missouri-arkansas-northern-miss/

Tropical Tidbits explains WHY Kate will go NE...out to sea.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

When this cold front really pushes through and the sky turns blue.

Then I'll know Kate makes the sharp turn like the models say she will

As I said before it's still Hurricane Season.

It's football season and NASCAR season.

It's fall festival season and wishing on a cold front...

...but holding onto the summer flip flops.

Stay tuned. I'll update later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps a lot of people down in the Bahamas thinking the tropical dangers are past.

Maybe they are right... depends which island they are in..

But one particular harbor may see tropical weather.

Stay tuned.