Tropical Storm Bill Possibly Forming & Headed Towards Texas.... and beyond. Flooding Scenario Possible. INVEST 91L

Sunday Morning

Brief Update:

Waiting on Recon 

Going in soon

Will update when more information is in 

(note Africa is not crying uncle to El Nino...)

Stay tuned, read on...

check back later...

This area could be Tropical Storm Bill

It's already INVEST 91L

The NHC has an Orange Circle this evening

60% chance of formation over next 5 days

Which way does he go?

Short term answer.. Texas

Long term answer...

We all seem to be in it... 

He mingles with a slow moving frontal boundary

Dumps a lot of rain across the South

Flooding rain

Note tracks are nicely bundled

Until it hits land.

Then everywhere form OK to NC are watching

Even as far NE as Iowa & PA/NY could get tropical rain

Crazy but true.

Close up of Invest 91L and Carlos in EPAC

The best place to look for information on this developing tropical system is in the forecast discussion for an area in it's possible path. Let's look at the Houston discussion, though this could hit to the West of there or to the East of there ... but however you cut it Houston is on high alert for record flooding. A small tropical storm or even a slow moving tropical depression can do immense damage from a slow moving tropical system. This year in particular after the recent flooding in the Houston Metro area they don't need to be reminded again of the damage they saw from Tropical Storm Allison. They know it all too well. It almost feels redundant to talk again about Allison and Houston, however it's not it's a real concern in the near future if the models verify and this becomes Tropical Storm Bill.

Understand we are talking a slow moving, very wet, mess.

Weaker it stays, the more widespread the rain could be..

NWS Houston Forecast Discussion

The problem with the potential Tropical Storm Bill is.. 

...that this could affect an area far inland.

Note they are currently dealing with flash flood problems.

Tropical Storm Bill would be adding insult to injury

NWS Oklahoma City Forecast Discussion

To show the real magnitude of the problem

Jackson City, Mississippi

Also worrying on tropical problems

Have to say it's always amazing watching a storm come together...

The tantric dance, interaction between an ULL and a developing tropical system.

It's a love hate relationship.

One feeds the other. Enhances it.

Then there is Carlos in the EPAC..

Carlos will be helping steer the developing BILL

The slow moving frontal boundary... will be trying to

You can see the players here:

Tomorrow we can discuss timing

And, if Scarlett goes home with the GFS or the EURO.

As for a trip down memory lane to Tropical Storm Allison

This is a good video to show you up close and personal

Remember Allison was the only named storm not a Hurricane

to have her name retired.. that much destruction

TWC video I posted in the past

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T2rPuWoWGE

As for Houston... 

Stay tuned.

If Bill forms there will be a wide area in the warning areas.

But, they won't be singing HOT! HOT! HOT!

They'll be singing WET! WET! WET!

And, they will be wishing Bill as more Kind... 

I'll update as more information comes in..

Models update and when and if Recon goes in..

Right now I'm concerned

From Matagorda Bay to the Sabine River Area

Besos Bobbi