Yellow X Near SFL & Bertha Alive & moving NW at 21 MPH

At 10 AM this was the state of the tropics. It will be updated at 11 but...

....this is worth talking about & whether they take Bertha down a notch

to open wave

or hang onto her

the set up does not change

neither does the weather.

Is that a conundrum or what?

You think you're seeing double right?

You aren't. 

The official discussion at the NHC says this:

"1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the

Northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula is associated with a
weak surface trough moving northward at around 10 mph.  This
disturbance is showing no signs of organization, and development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent"

Why are they bothering? Not sure but they are and they have asked for feedback so if you don't like the 0% then tell them. I think it's their way of saying "no worries" as it seems the "NEAR" 0% chance is not anything to worry on... it's just more tropical rain... over FL

My thoughts....

Ever play relay race in school?

Or connect the dots?

Sorry my graphics are not as good as the whiz kids who are met students and who get paid big $

I have better legs though...and I'm smart & know weather so... let's move on now..

Bertha (see B) has finally lifted and listened to her own advisories and has begun to stop going WNW. Partly because it's at the edge of the High and it's feeling the tug of the Low Pressure to it's north. I know the politically correct thing for me to write is it's feeling the trough but the door has been open by the Yellow X with a Zero Percent according to the 5AM discussion.

Look at the barometer readings this morning around Florida and note that earlier the barometric pressure in Miami where it was raining was even lower...

http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/florida/barometric-pressure/

Over my house it's currently 29.94 F

Currently Bertha's barometric pressure is 29.88  .....you do the math

The 8 AM Disussion from the NHC sounded like legal pleadings for making a case for keeping Bertha. The NHC kept Bertha which was more logical than a gamble. 

"An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance was able to

close off an 850 mb center around 0200 UTC, and a dropsonde released
to the southeast of the alleged center indicated a surface wind of
210 degrees at 21 kt, which implies a west wind of at least 10
kt somewhere in the southern quadrant.  These data are the basis
for keeping Bertha as a tropical cyclone for this advisory.  Also
during the outbound leg, the aircraft found rain-contaminated SFMR
surface winds of 53, 57, and 48 kt in the southeastern quadrant.
After adjusting those wind speeds due to rain enhancement yields a
consecutive 3-bin average speed of about 42 kt, which justifies
maintaining the intensity at 40 kt"

At 11 AM the Discussion was the following and based on the satellite image above... she is still a Tropical Storm and getting closer to that sweet spot they keep talking about where she finally finds her groove and kicks up her heels.

See discussion below:

"isible satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Bertha is

becoming a little better organized, with some banding features
apparent over the eastern portion of the system.  Also, reports
from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level
circulation is becoming better defined. "

This was not rocket science is my thought... has convection and now that the center has moved up off of DR it is visible. 

Rest of discussion is here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/031435.shtml

This is a very complicated situation and the dance floor at the Prom is getting busier by the minute. The front is pushing off to the East (not digging as much as they would like) and the X is the same size as Bertha with the barometric pressure not much lower and it's almost over my house. Why are we not worrying more on the X than we are on Bertha I keep wondering.

Oh let me repeat this... the thought everyone in Miami, FLL and WPB all have this morning...

"HUH?????" 

But keep your eyes on Tropical Storm Bertha as she is the main player here... unless the X is raining on your house. Well, there isn't much wind here but if the pressure keeps dropping which it may do as Bertha moves closer we may get weather tomorrow. I mean more better weather.

My question is... is the yellow X with the zero percent chance of developing a game changer?

The models are set but I am not a slave to the models, been burned too many times before in real time.

This is all getting too complicated and to pretend I don't see a yellow X sitting over my house on the front of the NHC I'm not going to ignore it. And, when I look at Bertha and my eyes go to her NW and she is moving NW also... in tandem almost with the wave/trough or whatever they call it this morning..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuE12DaAWh0

The NWS loop makes you want to scratch your head

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

And, South Florida is being slammed with all the rain this week that PR would kill for..

Let me make this clear. I watch the models obsessively however I am not a slave to the models.

I have known and learned from some of the best tropical meteorologists around both academically and otherwise and I know weather. I'm not a slave to fancy graphics nor sound bites.

If it quacks its a duck or someone pretending to be a duck... 

If it's raining at my house I'm wet.

If there are two systems in one satellite image I go hmmmnnn

If the NHC puts out a forecast that says Bertha will turn and miss Florida I expect them to be right.

I'll be back after the 5PM update from the NHC as we should know a whole lot more then than we do now...got it? 

I got it.

Stay tuned and never ignore a developing tropical cyclone to the ESE of you when you live in Florida when the barometer is low and it's raining. And...when it goes whoosh by to the east on it's way north you can sigh and go "wow they were right" and they usually are...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... feel free to send me your thoughs @Bobbistorm on Twitter. I'll bt out and about in the rain..

11:00 AM EDT 

Sun Aug 3 

Location: 22.2°N 72.6°W 

Moving: NW at 21 mph 

Min pressure: 1012 mb 

Max sustained: 45 mph