Suddenly Questions For Bertha & the Bahamas

So I have a lot of questions about a storm whose track previously seems to have been set in stone.

We have been waiting for days it seems for Bertha to get to the "sweet spot" where it's not so dry, shear will be less and the water temperature is hot. It ain't happening and yet today when they want to kill her off she looked better than she had in days. Nice blow up over Puerto Rico.

Track wise she is further west than predicted and that is totally logical.

So much for all the discussion that she would come in on the right side of the islands, clip them and go north. Then they pulled it west and she would turn closer to PR and then... under PR meanwhile she is hauling you know what WNW at 22 MPH. She has failed to make that awaited turn to the NW.

And more so my bigger problem is there is no reason to believe a weak system would do anything but continue WNW.

Where does that leave us?

Oh look a minor model broke with the pack.

When you look at the USA radar...

There is a vague frontal boundary that is hanging over the Carolinas..

...another trough and the stronger low to the North...

There is a high... that hasn't moved out

There is a front that is supposed to move down

There is Bertha... supposed to have gone NW

There is low pressure off the coast of Florida . . .(where the squiggly blue & red line are)

In theory the big bad front on August 2 or 3rd pushes DOWN vs moving more towards the East Coast and scoops up Bertha and she flies NE along the front to the West of the High that is still pretty far west.

There is a new yellow area in the Bahamas off the coast of FL where by the way the pressure is low and my question is why would the disorganized remnants of Bertha not get absorbed in that front or a new low pressure system? The end result might be similar though I'm not convinced that Bertha would not be attracted to South Carolina somewhere as they are in the flow for rain right now.

Is the front that strong? Is the high that weak? Why is Bertha moving over Dominican Republic not up NW thru the Mona Passage into the Turks & Caicos?



And now suddenly they want to "kill off" Bertha when she looks better than she has convection wise in days. Granted her circulation center is far off to the West and her convection with strong winds is lagging behind.

Some models still take her to hurricane status.

So the question tonight is... are the models right or are they missing something?

Is Bertha missing something.........like the turn to the NW?

Would be easier to kill her off until she behaves and maybe she could come back from the dead..

like any good soap opera heroine?

This is beginning to feel like Hurricane Georges ...Bertha is not a Hurricane

but she is also stubbornly moving WNW.

If her center falls apart over Hispaniola it's possible her convection could reform a new center

to the NW up in the Bahamas where the models saw "her" 

Only time will tell...

A lot of questions.

From the NHC...good discussion tonight by Beven.

3 roads Bertha can travel..

"There are now three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha.
The scenario for the official forecast is that Bertha survives its
current lack of structure, land interaction, and dry air
entrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in
about 36 hours.  At that point, it would likely intensify until
the onset of extratropical transition in 96-120 hours.  Using this
scenario, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in about 96
hours.  The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical
wave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration later
when the system reaches the more favorable environment.  A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas.  The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development.  Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario."


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.4N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.0N  70.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 22.5N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 25.1N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 28.0N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 34.0N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 38.5N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 43.5N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

I have one question here.... where would it regenerate if it falls apart??

That could be a real game changer...

"The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical

wave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration later
when the system reaches the more favorable environment."

Lots of rain for PR..not as much wind as the Virgin Islands got but lots of rain.

Back later with more thoughts.

Sweet tropical dreams...

Bobbistorm

Ps... really, really hot & steamy tonight in Miami...

pouring rain.......