Bertha over the Islands NOW.. Headed to PR & Mona Passage

The state of the tropics and where Bertha is... over the islands as I type this..

though there has been no official talk of "landfall" and hurricane hunters

are finding high pressures... waiting to see what else they find or don't find..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

Where is she going? Models are all pretty much in agreement. The question seems to bed intensity.

Below is a water vapor image of our little Bertha. I'm trying to be kind because everyone keeps dumping on her including making fun of her name...and size. Again she is what she is, but she is forecast to possibly become a stronger storm if and when she makes it to that golden sweet spot where the water is warm, the wind shear is low and the dust is gone. Of course there is the Upper Level Low that actually looks like it's less a problem up in the Bahamas where she will be going later in the forecast period.

Bertha is currently sitting over the islands. I'm putting u a cone from yesterday at 11PM when Bertha was named. It's a good way of seeing how well the NHC is doing..and they are doing pretty good.

Their track definitely verified both in intensity and in location. Of course currently the track has been pulled more to the right in the short term as it passes well over PR and should go through the Mona Passage. IF Bertha does go through the Mona Passage she won't have to deal with any mountains nor too much land before reaching her Bahamas Vacation where she has the chance to breathe a little bit. It is off the coast of Florida where the NHC feels she could intensify a bit.

She has to get to the blue X area for that to happen and at the moment she is trucking fast and furious through the islands. This is where a few things happen.

1. Steering currents weaken & she should slow down as she nears the edge of the High.
2. There is warmer water available for her to be able to strengthen.
3. Shear from the ULL should lessen as the ULL is dimming as Bertha is trying to grow in size.
4. Historically tropical systems tend to slow down there while turning to the North and catching their breath for the second part of their journey northward and away from land. Of course, sometimes they slam into land, but usually they go out to sea here. IF they are going to make the turn.. it is where the X is where there is ready tropical moisture to intensify.
5. Note Arthur developed and intensified moving North... the pattern has not changed that much and the water is very warm.

Going to break this up into now and later.

Current track for Tropical Storm Bertha takes her over PR... through the Mona Passage.

This map from www.skeetobiteweather.com is about as clear as it gets.

Batten down the hatches, enjoy the rain and hopefully any daughter of mine that is there ...

better take pictures

(sigh...)

Larger Track...for people without a daughter on vacation in PR...

A great map to use to watch Bertha as she moves through the islands.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations01

Use the link above to get observations such as this:

Mind you no site is as good as www.stormcarib.com when it comes to getting live reports from the islands. Click on the links on the left and you will get live info and other information. Great sat links.. Enjoy it.

Dave has excellent discussion there.. 

Friday, August 1, 2014 12:00PM EDT - Chugging Bertha

Good morning!

Just a quick update on the now hard charging Bertha, about 70 miles NE of Barbados moving WNW at 21 mph. Bertha is a fighter having made the upgrade to TS status last night but having a hard time keeping her top on! Westerly wind shear is playing havoc with the west side of the system and an exposed COC (center of circulation) is very evident; almost way out in front of the convection which some of it is.

HH found 50 mph sustained winds but not much further strengthening is forecast due to the relentless shear. At least not in the near term. Most of the convection and sustained wind action is in the North and East quadrants which means the NE Antilles should reap beneficial rains but at a cost of flooding.

The middle Windwards will get a smack from Bertha and then she enters the Caribbean with a bit warmer SSTs so it wouldn't surprise me if she made 60 mph eventually. Using the extrapolation tool provided by Gert, the center is expected to pass about 64 miles at its closest approach to St. Croix and less than 100 miles from St. Thomas. The TS force winds stretch out 115 miles so Virgin Islanders, do the math. I actually think it will get a little closer as it has shifted a few degrees over the last few hours.

I'll have more on what to look for down the road but Hispaniola and Puerto Rico should receive good rains too, more so Puerto Rico. Then T&C and the Bahamas, if she survives, should be very ready. That Gulf Stream is very warm.

Dave 

Now I know you all want to know what I think of it's future track as it nears South Florida.

Honestly I see no reason to believe that Bertha will veer off to the left and slam into South Florida. The NHC has been spot on with their track so far and the logic is there for it to turn out to sea.

My problem is that it is the first week in August and cold fronts are not that reliable. It all comes down to timing and the storm needs to be there exactly at the right time. IF the front dies out a bit and doesn't make it all the way down the state... and the high begins to move in again just a little bit then... Bertha could get close enough to South Florida to ...go to the beach and watch the waves. It would take a major breakdown of the steering currents for Bertha to become a bigger problem.

What I do think Bertha shows is a scenario that is set up and will be played out again later in the season with a stronger storm and as long as we have systems riding along the very warm Gulf Stream parallelling the coast it only takes ONE to end up more to the left and somewhere over South Florida or slamming into the coast of Carolina much like Arthur did.... 

The water only gets hotter...the storms will only get bigger and with this current set up of developing close in the odds go higher that South Florida will be under the gun. 

Arthur was not forecast to become a Hurricane at first and never a Category 2 until things changed. He pulled it together off the coast of Florida.

Now we have the B storm forecast to possibly intensify off the coast of Florida a bit to the right of where Arthur found his mojo. See the problem here for the 2014 Hurricane Season?

If Bertha stays together and doesn't fall apart (as some models predicted) and she blows up or regenerates in the Bahamas... she could be stronger than the NHC currently forecasts as they were on the low side with Arthur. Just a thought... 

Anytime a hurricane or even a tropical storm is to the SE of you if you live in South Florida you gotta pay attention. Never turn your back on it until it is way north of you. Never bet the farm on a cold front in August. 

Watch.... pay attention and remember tropical weather happens in real time.

7 day loop from the NWS

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Bertha appears and flies off fast to the NE... 

Mike has all the sites you need on www.spaghettimodels.com so check them out often.

Radar, satellite loops and models all on one site easy to see it all for those who are so visual like I am...

We will see on Sunday morning where Bertha is and where the cold front is and have a better idea of what will be down the road when she is headed towards the Bahamas and warmer water.

Hopefully PR gets the rain they need, very little damage and I get good pics to post from my daughter.

It's just a rule of thumb until a cyclone passes you.... you don't let your guard down no matter what the models say. I rely on the NHC but... this storm is edging it's way through the Hebert Box and bears watching even in its small, disorganized condition as things can change fast in the tropics.

Lastly... my brother's tee shirt came today. He's modeling it for me (note the hurricane sign on the wall...) and asking you again if you have not ordered one please do as the money goes to storm chaser Jim Leonard who is battling terminal cancer. Do a mitzah aka a good deed. Give to charity and share in his love of tropical weather.

http://www.skiesovertheplains.com/
(scroll down to the order form)

Besos Bobbi

Ps
A good map of the area where the storm is going.................

I'll be on Saturday night. Sorry for any typos.. Rushed for time with shabbos coming and my brother's Internet is slow... and Bertha is moving FAST. Too fast to properly intensify and hopefully not too fast to give PR the much needed rain it is waiting for......

With tropical storms it's hard to predict who gets the strong rain as they are messy.. a work in progress which describes Bertha perfectly!

(Good Shabbos Alfred...)