Bertha Singng New Country Song "45 Alive & Trucking..."

No one ever said a Tropical Storm had to be "pretty"

it's packing 45 mph winds & moving WNW at 20 mph forward speed

forecast to maybe intensify to 50 mph 

Translation: It is what is is.

Bertha

If you watch the loop you will see that the convection flares up nicely but it is racing ahead of the circulation. Because it keeps doing that it is unable to wrap the circulation around the very well defined center it has always had and develop. It needs to slow down a bit. It is forecast to slow down later in the forecast period near the Bahamas. The reason it slows down is because the High erodes a bit a window develops between Cold Fronts and that translates steering currents get weak. I may add here that is never really good when forecasting. We like strong steering patterns with no wiggle room. For now there is a lock on where she goes over the next few days. Down the tropical road when she pulls North and is closer to South Florida the steering currents are forecast to weaken. So stay tuned Bertha might have some tricks up her sleeve yet. For now she is a minimal, poorly organized Tropical Storm Bertha, 45 mph and trucking west way too fast.

I'll update the blog this afternoon when there is more data from both the next model run and Hurricane Recon heading into the storm. 

On a personal note...

I'll give a more detailed update this afternoon on how Bertha is doing, pero (that means "but" in Miami) I'm going to do something different right now and write an open letter to my daughter Dee whose husband surprised her with an anniversary trip to Puerto Rico a few days ago. Yeah....Dee the one who goes to the beach in storms with me... We were at the beach in NY when a band of strong storms flew through from Arthur. Imagine she will get some good pictures of Bertha..

So read along & know am being honest pero a bit silly because there is no way of knowing what is in his head when he wrote the Tropical Discussion this morning. I have known a few forecasters and do know what would be in their head while writing the discussion and I'm being silly. On one hand my daughter is flying into a tropical storm...on the other hand...she can take pictures for me ;)

Besos Bobbi


Dear Dee,

It's hard to say exactly what San Juan will really get. Bertha has been consistently inconsistent. She flares up, she dies down, she flares up...  The track was to the right of PR originally, then it was to the left. Is over PR next? Unless she signifigantly intensifies she is going West..you know that. Remember what you said about Hurricane Georges and you were so right. Note as I predicted the NHC changed her direction from WNW to West this morning as she is really moving a little north of Due West. That could change and in general a lot could change as she is a developing TS trying to pull herself together. You know what I always say.. easier to predict a Cat 1 or 2 or even 3 Hurricane than a pissant tropical storm. Also, you have to respect a system that refused to give up (think Andrew but this is NOT Andrew), because sometimes they pack surprises down the line.

Stay safe, take lots of pictures and if she keeps up her current speed she will blow through fast. San Juan is a lot like Miami... it's like having a Tropical Storm in Miami and pretty sure you've done that before running out for Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts ;)

Love you... I'll update later.
Please read between the lines of the 8AM discussion from the NHC ... I've added a few thoughts in red ;) like how Jay and I write each other.

Keep watching TWC the way I know you are..

Love Mommy

Ps NHC doesn't expect it to ever get above 50 MPH in the 5 day. Think a strong Tstorm during the monsoon season in Miami. Of course they were wrong on the intensity forecast for Arthur and they were wrong as you pointed out for Georges the whole way through the Caribbean ;)

* * * *

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

Bertha is a sheared tropical cyclone ...she looks like crap but we can't say that...

 with the center located on the western edge of the deep convection... she can't even get that right)..

 as indicated by satellite. ...(duh, hard to find on satellite imagery right)

The low-level circulation continues to be vigorous, ...vigorous is the best we can say &

...she's bottm beavy.... but given the

current westerly shear the outflow is very limited. ...no words...

There are no

reasons to change the initial intensity which is kept at 40 knots.
Another Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate Bertha in
the next several hours. ...its our job...


The current shear environment is not particularly favorable for
strengthening, ...crummy actually...

but there are some indications by the global models

that the shear could decrease some as Bertha moves across the
northeastern Caribbean Sea....(some not all)... This should allow some slight

intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours....note the word SLIGHT...

 Once Bertha's circulation moves away from Hispaniola beyond 48 hours, there is an

opportunity for additional strengthening if the shear becomes
lighter as suggested by global and statistical models....could finally develop close in 

to the US/Bahamas but we talk about Haiti not to scare anyone) At this time,

the NHC forecast keeps Bertha with 45-knot winds over the
western Atlantic until it becomes more certain that the shear could
subside.

...45 Alive & Still Kicking...sounds like a Country Song...

Bertha continues racing toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 17 knots. ...racing way too fast to develop....

The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the

Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once in
the western Atlantic near the eastern Bahamas, Bertha will be
steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high
and a mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern
will force Bertha to turn northward with a decrease in forward speed

...hope people are reading carefully here when I said "decrease in forward speed...

and to eventually ...after crawling & making ppl nervous...

 recurve northeastward over the Atlantic. The

confidence in the track forecast, primarily in the next 2 to 3
days, is high since most the guidance is tightly clustered. The
confidence decreases after 3 days when the guidance becomes
divergent. ...no se por donde se va pero probablemente norte 

The track envelope, however, brings Bertha northward

and then northeastward over the Atlantic, and the NHC forecast

follows closely the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 13.0N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 14.0N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 15.5N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 17.2N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 19.5N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 24.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 35.0N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila