HELEN on TWC, Snow Possibilities in Raleigh and Carolinas? Deep South Snow? Ice?

That is a "forecast" which is updated in real time ....so check back below to the image and compare and contrast it...see how well the forecast panned out.




The NWS has a 7 day loop. This is the day in question and the question is how much (if any) snow the Mid Atlantic will get with special attention to the Carolinas.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html <--- 48="48" a="a" amounts="amounts" and="and" answers="answers" are="are" cities="cities" definitive="definitive" get="get" hours.............="hours............." in="in" less="less" loop="loop" lot="lot" may="may" not="not" of="of" often...="often..." outhern="outhern" p="p" snow="snow" specific="specific" than="than" that="that" the="the" there="there" to="to" today="today" updates="updates">

So...what will or won't happen?

I don't know. 

Obviously I want snow. Seems a waste to be up north and not enjoy snow...

Then again, most people who moved to RDU Land moved here from up north because they "like the seasons' but they hate snow so... there are a lot more people praying for it not to snow and then again...there are a lot more kids praying for snow. I suppose I am a kid at heart.

So, here are some of my notes from things I have heard online... or on TV and I'll end with my own thoughts which are relevant thought often random.

This is one of my favorite heard on TV... 

"computer models are having a hard time resolving the amount of snow and location of those amounts..."

My thought: Well, I can look at the model myself, I was hoping to hear what the professionals had to say... 

"Mountains of Tennessee and Virginia will get snow"  

My thought:  Duh..

"Uncertain in the Piedmont.."  Reason: Something about ground temps...it's been warm you know...

When the people at TWC asked the person on the phone from the NWS in Raleigh about the possibility of any kind of Ice Event she sounded really nervous... 

"there will be icy spots...freezy precept....

small chance.. more concerned about snow fall totals...

quick burst of snow for a couple of hours....accumulation on pavement is hard,

soil temps hovering 40s... "

My thoughts:  Um...was he asking just to hype "Helen" or is there are chance of any icing? I have been thinking that myself, but could be called a wishcaster as it's obviously something I'm looking for"

She continued, "bridges and overpasses may be a problem for black ice" 

Timing?

The evening hours...Friday morning commute may be a problem" 

"people need to stay on top of it.."

My thoughts...she sounds very iffy on this...

"there is a big spread in the models..."

My thoughts: "what is this Vegas?"

Local channel... "there are a lot of complexities..."

"depending on the strength of the developing low we could get snow... "

"some of our own models show 1.75 but I'm not sold on this... because it has been so warm"

My thoughts:

 Yeah tell that to Alabama and Mississippi...it was pretty warm there too before the Ice came!

And....oddly we have "thunder" in the forecast for Thursday...so does that mean we will have snow in ten days either way? The models do show a good two week period of extreme cold temperatures which would mean... the ground would be colder than if anything fell for it to stick. (I"m learning this snow thing...)

So...................................snow or no snow?

TWC says they will most likely fill in the area from Greensboro to Raleigh for higher snow accumulation. 

It's nice to say "climo" is against it but climo is also against Chicago being snowless in January and climo was always against it being 70 degrees the other day. It's been my experience when the weather has been flaky... it gets more flaky and hopefully in this case "snow flaky" and the unusual happens vs the usual. 

The NWS says it will most likely be a "pretty site for 15 to 20 minutes" in the morning... 

cute.. are they being serious or sarcastic? 

WHILE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND/OR
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIER
PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. P-TYPES COME INTO THE QUESTION TOWARDS THE
LATTER STAGES OF THE EVENT(BETWEEN 00 TO 08Z)...WITH THE OLD
FORECAST DILEMMA OF WHETHER THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE ABLE CATCH UP WITH THE DEPARTING PRECIP/MOISTURE SHIELD TO
BRING A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BEFORE COMING TO AN END. IN SUCH CASES...WHILE
POSSIBLE...IT IS RARE THAT CENTRAL NC RECEIVES SUBSTANTIAL(ADVISORY
WORTHY)SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INSTEAD...WE TYPICALLY SEE ONLY A DUSTING
RESTRICTED TO GRASSY AREAS AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN FACT...BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD ARGUE FOR THAT POINT...SHOWING STRONG DEEP LAYER
DRYING WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE CAA FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA. THIS LEADS ME TO TO
BELIEVE THAT A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE
ALL WE CAN MUSTER BEFORE THE EVENT/PRECIP ENDS...A PRETTY SITE FOR
15 TO 20 MINUTES FOR THE FEW WHO ARE AWAKE AT 2AM TO 5AM IN THE
MORNING. A WARM AND SATURATED GROUND WILL ALSO ARGUE THE CASE FOR NO
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...WILL INTRODUCE A BRIEF
CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AREAS COULD ALSO SEE A RAIN/ SNOW MIX...AGAIN
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE QUICKER
ONSET OF THE SYSTEM AND MORE LIMITED INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE

NOTE ...the temperatures have been adjusted downward. 

It is currently 43 in Raleigh, however the forecast for the day was for it to be in the high 50s and honestly I don't see it getting much colder as it's extremely gray out there. Let's put it this way.. I don't see how we get to the forecasted high... but I could be wrong.

We are currently colder than the forecasted low...

If it's 43 at almost 1 PM ... how do we get to 72 and why are we colder than the low forecast?

Hmmmnnnn.... 

Weather for Raleigh, NC

43°F | °C

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Light Rain

Wind: N at 4 mph

Humidity: 97%

72°

48°

55°

28°

45°

28°

54°

34°

Detailed forecast:

The Weather Channel

-

Weather Underground

-

AccuWeather

A busted forecast or was someone just being cautious and conservative?

Obviously...predicting snow in this area is very difficult...as is predicting the high of the day...

Stay tuned... I'm watching and I know most of Raleigh is watching..

Nice picture of the downtown area posted on Twitter earlier... 

https://twitter.com/alaurel_wtvd/status/291590229943529472/photo/1

Pretty soon I'll be asking my husband if he "smells snow" seeing as he was raised way up north...

Besos Bobbi

Ps...whoever keeps playing I "dream of rain" at TWC... thank you... and personally I'd worry about some icing... and maybe even thundersnow? Seeing as they have "thunder" in the forecast... wow would I love that..