Tropical Storm Leslie Stays Weak

That is basically good news.

She should stay weaker than previously forecast, though there is some discussion on why the models insist on intensifying her whereas the NHC is a bit skeptical of that intensification. Tricky forecast for them, good thing she's not close to land.

She has a BIG pocket of moisture she is carrying with her and her western side is every so close to the islands, but just seeming to miss them. Note, on this image you can see the still intact circulation of Issac over Arkansas and Illinois. In fact, earlier today we had rain in Raleigh that was loosely associated with the western moving bands arcing away from Isaac. It was VERY VERY HUMID, a sort of Miami day not much of a Carolina day.

A closer look at Leslie will explain why she is having problems. Like several of her siblings this year, her center has become a bit decoupled and is moving away from her convection ...or in this case dragging her convection with the exposed center. She is currently moving NW.

Discussion from the NHC shows the question they are dealing with regarding future strength. Models have backed off of their major hurricane scenario, yet they continue showing intensification despite what seems like marginal conditions.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
FORECASTING INCREASING SHEAR OVER LESLIE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...
AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. DESPITE
THIS...MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EITHER MAINTAINS THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE OR FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
TIME. BASED ON THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...WITH THE
FORECAST NEAR THE THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE
SHEAR MAY START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 48 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST LESLIE TO GROW IN BOTH SIZE AND DEPTH DURING THAT TIME. 
THIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS WEAKER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

A mute point as far as the long range goes, as either way she is still forecast to move very slowly, possibly stall in weaker steering currents in a few days...later next week.

For now... good to know she will stay safely away from land as has Kirk who is about to be written off as extratropical.

As for Isaac...there has been severe weather far inland all day.

There was a problem with St Tammany Parish and a levee but it seems to have stabilized now.

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/09/01/4779053/fear-of-lock-failure-spurs-st.html


Either way, it's going to be a Labor Day Weekend of cleaning up in Louisiana and Mississippi and more severe weather inland, up the Mississippi Valley and eastward as his remnants move east.

More tomorrow... sweet tropical dreams ... Bobbi
Ps... am a just a wee bit worried on Leslie's center and a possible relocation to the south later IF this trend continues or... her getting further west if she stays weak but for now...going to sleep and going to dream of pretty, big hurricanes spinning safely out in the middle of the ocean.