Concerns on Isaac's Future Track...
This is Leslie, a very strong Tropical Storm that looks more like a wannabe Hurricane. Leslie looks stronger at this point, than any other systems did so far this year when they were struggling out in the middle of the Atlantic. And, she is getting stronger and not struggling with the problems that Isaac and Ernesto had to battle.
And, the models STILL show Leslie sitting in the middle of the ocean a week or so from now, spinning and doing loops... no models show as of yet what she does AFTER she is done spinning loops. It's a week a way, it might not play out that way.
Note this image below is time sensitive and updates so in a few days you will see what really might happen. For now it shows odd things at the end of the loop.
11 AM Wind probs are still high that someone in the islands may feel tropical storm force winds.
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
The last thing we need is Leslie being further west than she is currently forecast moving back towards the East Coast. Everyone from Florida to Maine should pay attention to this storm. No one wants a Category 3 or Category 4 storm knocking at their door with a forecast to turn a lot closer than previously expected.
Currently according to the 11 AM advisory from the NHC Leslie is moving WNW at a forward speed of 17 mph with winds up to 65 mph, if not a whole lot stronger at 5 PM.
They also mentioned in their last advisory that her end point is going to be both South and West of their previous forecast.
The relevant parts of their discussion is shown below:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15...A BIT FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. LESLIE REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK AS IT MOVES BENEATH A NARROW RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE KIRK. THE RIDGE BREAKS BETWEEN 60W-65W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN A FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME. IT NOW APPEARS THAT LESLIE WILL MISS A TROUGH FORECAST TO DIVE OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA...AND WILL BE CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS IN THE LONG RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THOSE TIMES.
Also, a lot of "should" and "basically" words thrown in there that indicate the uncertainties in their current forecast. Hopefully that will change.
Previous thought was the trough, the diving trough would catch Leslie, grab her and shut her out to sea.
It's a drama being played out live, while residents of Louisiana and Mississippi continue to clean up from Isaac.And, remember a Major Hurricane can develop such a strong high a loft that he can control it's own destiny more than a small, weak storm caught in the steering currents. A category 4 can make it's own steering current. Let's hope this does not play out this way.
Ps... please if you have not read this morning's post asking for more compassion for the people affected by Isaac who for various reasons did not evacuate...they need your compassion and your help. And, remember search and rescue crews have not even been able to get to the worst areas where more bodies may be floating inside their homes and more people may be trapped waiting for help and... the earthen dam is still in trouble...though it looks like they may be okay. Pray.