Let's Talk Leslie... Forecast to be a Major Hurricane

That's Tropical Storm Leslie larger than life out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. She is officially a 50mph tropical storm... she is forecast to be a very strong hurricane.

Looks pretty together.



Looks like a storm that wants to be a big Hurricane.

Now, let's look at the GFS model for later in the forecast period.

That dark spot on Planet Earth is Leslie at 135 hours from now.........

That darker spot is Leslie at 168 hours from now...

Let me blow that dark spot for you up...

It is premature to speculate on a possible Category 4 Hurricane somewhere East of Bermuda.. that seems sit there for a while... even as a Category 3 Leslie could make her own environment, let alone a possible Category 4.

The GFS could be wrong. It is just a model, not Miss Cleo and for sure not God ...however it is a very good model. And, that is a larger than life storm.

Loop the loop for yourself:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012083018&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

You might want to play a Jaws theme song in the background...

The official intensity forecast from the NHC is as follows:

HE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING VERY LARGE...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT WIND FIELD FORECAST.  AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN SIZE APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 72 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 14.7N  46.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 15.5N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 16.7N  51.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 17.9N  54.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 19.3N  56.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 22.5N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 26.5N  61.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 29.0N  61.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

That's pretty amazing in itself and follows the intensification of the GFS which peaks out in the strong Major Hurricane Range after the 120 Hour forecast above.

Nogaps:

It's worth noting the European does not intensify Leslie as strong... 

Note Leslie is a big storm, potentially much like Isaac size wise but he stays in the Atlantic...

Really let's hope that Leslie stays far out in the Ocean.

My problem with 5 day charts and betting the farm on them is this... 

This was the model for TD 9 on August 21st... about a week before he hit Louisiana and Mississippi.

Models change day by day... in miles, but extrapolated down the road they inch further and further west... or east. 

Let's hope what will soon be Hurricane Leslie inches East..

Hurricane Kirk has intensified strongly all day, he is small but stronger now than he was and he might be setting a trend towards strong Atlantic Hurricanes.

Getting back to Isaac, downgraded but a large catastrophe on many levels. A reminder that you don't have to be a Major Hurricane to cause major misery. Size contributed to the problem with Isaac as his bands go wide at great distances from his center. And, he moved slowly.

The stories are heartbreaking and they will need a lot of money and strength to rebuild and rebound. 

In Haiti 29 people have died, possibly more from Isaac...two more people died in the US. 

Another I storm name retired, maybe there is some sort of curse.

Either way... I am worried on Leslie tonight and hoping the current models are correct that keep her out in the middle of the Ocean vs inching closer and closer to the US. 

Keep watching, keep praying 

Besos Bobbi

Reba McEntire has been asking people to donate $10 to the Red Cross... it's a good idea.

Reba McEntire ‏@reba

More than 5,200 people stayed in #RedCross shelters last night. Text REDCROSS to 90999 to make a $10 donation to help now! #Isaac

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