Tropical Depression 14 Forms in the Atlantic, Last Advisory on Leslie Issued

As I said earlier today, after they killed off Tropical Storm Leslie and named her Queen of Extratropicals they upgraded the tropical disturbance to Depression status and named it TD14. I underlined the relevant part...

"THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE LESLIE...LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ADVISORIES ARE
STILL BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL"

The track for TD14 is as follows:

My concern is not that the track is wrong...or that she will ever see Florida or South Carolina.. my concern is it's too soon to write her off as the track is very similar to the original track for Leslie.



I posted this back in late August to show the wonders of www.spaghettimodels.com.... Leslie as we know eventually got much further west and NW... and hit land vs swimming out to sea. Never rely on models at the start of the game...they show tendencies and it shows a tendency that makes sense as Leslie has punched a hole in the strong high that drove many a storm this season west and unless 14 stays VERY VERY VERY weak it will follow the path. The weaker it stays, the further west it gets. Yup, that is the rule of thumb.... especially this season.

Keep watching...

Besos Bobbi