Summer Solstice Soon! Hot Summer Days. Hot Summer Nights. Water Warms Up to HOT! Erick ...Where Does His Rain Go? BOC Possibilities Low But There... Stay Tuned.

Graphics from Zoom Earth

Let's start with Erick

Erick is the 5th storm in the very busy Eastern Pacific this season in an area very conducive for development vs the Atlantic that currently is quiet. There are two good reasons to discuss Erick and those are how the NHC handles what may be a difficult forecast and where his moisture may ultimately may go and whether or that moisture could help spark a storm in the Bay of Campeche. Long run on sentence I know, but the last few days have been like one long run on sentence in ways.

The rainfall forecast for Erick above.

Obviously it can ooze into many places.

Graphic above shows the next 7 day rainfall.

Golds and reds seeping into Mexico...

..and into BOC.

Candy stripe red is favorable for development.

Could be from leftovers from Eric

And or combo with a tropical wave.

Is that just rain?
Maybe....

Meanwhile back to the forecast from NHC.

It's a complex forecast.

They admit in their discussion...

...they are on the low side of intensity.

The forecast for 100 mph could be low.

IF so..

NHC adjusts in real time.

Many people have asked me and every person involved with Hurricane Season how the NHC will do with various cuts in budgets and how well they will do this season in forecasting. I know the NHC and when I say that I mean personally and subjectively and they will always do their best to put together a good forecast. Hurricanes are always fickle even when our forecasting gets better on all levels. It's just the nature of the beast and a hurricane is a beast. So from the way the NHC handles Erick we can see how well, how normal they are doing and other EPAC systems before the Atlantic side of the basin gets busy. 

Most online insist there will be no development for the next 7 to 10 days in the Atlantic. I don't like to rule out the possibility of something popping up or changing in the short term. When I say "short term" I mean 5 to 10 days. But what I can say is that the High in the Atlantic is huge and for the foreseeable future not forecast to budge. Water temperatures in the MDR are not yet at the point ready to boil and fuel a hurricane. That said there is always a possibility for development close in and close in gives very little heads up and close in systems in June can deliver huge amounts of rainfall and create flooding. The wind may not be there to worry on, but heavy flooding is always an issue to take seriously. Also note the Summer Solstice is on Friday (coming up soon) and often comes with some sort of system or sign as to what the summer may bring. We are no longer pretending it's Summer because it's Meteorological Summer but we are in full force Summer.  Deeper into Summer the closer we get to the storms of Fall as July brings tropical storms the way September screams Hurricane.

For now.......you can see above........

High Pressure rules supreme in the Atlantic.

Check the red lines around the blue H.

Not much room for a tropical system to form...

...yet alone breathe and grow.

I'll add in a wild card ...

... often a Subtropical Storm forms in June.

Not discussing that ...just reminding you it happens.

So stay safe.

Stay centered.

Stay busy.

Stay happy.

And as always......

Sweet Tropical Dreams 

and 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather and there all day...

Elsewhere whatever 

As always Summer Nights can be wild.

Kids complaining it's too hot in Miami.

Funny I think it's too hot in NC too!

Some nights it barely cools off.

Ice Cream time ;)

or Party at Club Space in Miami....

To each generation it's own.

I've got kids who hang out there....

... hard working young adults.

Work hard, play hard!

Never stop chasing.....