Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 20, 2024

2PM Updated - Solstice ... 92L Now on the Clock - Set Up For Fast Moving Tropical Disturbance... DIt's a epression to Slide into the SE JAX GA Carolinas Watching Area Painted Orange This Morning. Alberto Made Landfall Near Tampico Mex. Flooding Tex/Mex. Patterns Produce in BOC/GOM & SE Coast.

Alberto gone, inland.
92L 40 in 2 Days.
Yellow X 50% in 7 day.

This means that the Invest known as 92L is the most compelling system to discuss today as whatever it is and whatever it may become will make "landfall" late Friday into Saturday. Recon has flown into the system and we are waiting. There are signs if has a very small closed center, but recon will get the data that answers that question. Models have problems latching on to very small systems (this has been an issue over time) but eventually it all shakes out one way or the other. This is not expected to be a huge weather maker, it's very interesting from an academic point of view (I worked in Academia a long time) and to me it's more so curious that it is even there as it's embedded in a huge, dry, high pressure.

Questions remain.
Could it get a name?
TD status?

It's a big question. 
Would the NHC put out a Potential Cyclone Alert for a possible Tropical Depression?

System has a small center it seems...
It's been very stubborn and not given up as most didn't even give it a chance.
It's going to travel across the high octane fuel of the Gulfstream...
........note that's mostly important IF it has a center that can utilize the hot water energy.
CLIMO wise it's inline with many small, weak tropical depressions and named storms there late in June.

It's moving fast because of the flow there and the High pushing it too quick to develop deep.
Models don't love it, they barely see it but I can list easily 5 small storms that developed big also.
Shear from the South is displacing the energy limiting it for now in North half, tho trying to wrap.

Extra Credit..........Small systems look crappy until they get very close to land then tighten up fast.
We see this all the time on radar. 
We saw it with Alberto, tho it did have more model support.

Tropical Depression?
What will NHC do at 5 PM?

Down the tropical road.
I see hurricanes forming in July.
Get a plan for hurricane season.

Just saying.

I'll update at 5 

9 AM below

Introducing Invest 92L
Zoom Earth is awesome.
Especially before things develop.
Marks the spot and shows where it came from...

NHC this morning, now orange 40% in 2 days.
Do we get cherries by 2 PM?
What will they do??? 
Currently orange juice for the morning!

40% in 2 days. 
So close future radar picks it up.
Yet models having a problem finding it.
Very small, fast forming systems can elude models.

There it is in real time.
Earthlink...trying to close off.
Just off the coast.

Note we gotta a pattern going on!

It's a funny quandry in that models develop the Deja Vu system following the leader Alberto and yet are having problems seeing the area off the SE coast that's visible on satellite imagery. And, that is why NHC upped it to 40% orange and is watching it, as sometimes things "pop up" fast from this sort of set up and make landfall just as fast. Not talking a hurricane and lots of people in Jax and Augusta could really use the rain. 

2 days ago this happened.

Little shadow comet like system ...
..moved fast inland.
I said then it was a foreruner possibly.

This is what happens when the tail of an old front, hanging out over hot water meets up with an ULL to the SW that's kind of enhancing the spin a bit... closer it gets to land they sometimes come out of cloaking mode like some hidden space ship the Enterprise doesn't see until they do. I'm not the biggest Trekkie but I know that plot line.  If you look down near KW you see the ULL... to the NE you see 92L looking down at the ULL saying "thank you" and that's the story of the tropics in June too soon... minimal systems can pop up off SE coast and in BOC. Time will tell if this gets a TD sticker or a bonus B name of Beryl. In motion below. Upper Level Lows can be game changers you can't ignore. It helps here, might help in GOM later for the other Orange area we are watching which I'll talk on alter as 92L is up close and way too personal and possibly extremely sneaky. Either way what shows up there AFTER 92L is gone and what will the High propel Westbound or WNW and then NW depending on where and when?

I'd laugh off fast forming system.
People laughed at Julia.
Katrina formed fast... 
...good thing this is going into Jax ish vs GOM
Did 1935 hurricane really form from a TS fast?
This isn't a hurricane of any kind...
... but shows up on long range radar.
So don't ignore it.
Don't ignore the pattern!

Will update later today.
Recon goes in we learn more.
Maybe we learn in real time.
Models below.

EURO Windy. Rain filter below EURO

They don't align.... but they deliver wind and rain.
And maybe more.

Decent lil signature.
Models do not do well with mini signatures.
This is the NAM a short range model.
This is as short range as it gets...

Moves on in over Georgia!
To the E is a feed of moisture for Carolinas.

That's it for models.
I'll add a model in but want to post this now.

Below are thoughts.
If you like reading my thoughts.
Keep reading.
Song at the end :)

Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico as a tropical storm that sent flooding to far away places in Texas to the North. Not a very organized center, and yet the overall set up with the storm produced what will be a costly clean up and should be a warning to pay attention to the tropics this year as they will be full of surprises. And, as we move deeper into the Hurricane Season the systems will be more developed, eyes will be fully formed and banding will be wrapped perfectly and one or two hurricanes will have their names retired this year. That's not a prediction as much as a most likely statement based on the way the hurricane season is going and the way of the tropical world in a busy year. 

Get busy and later.

Not all systems form from tropical waves that develop a sort of center early on and that center is visible during the whole long trek across the Atlantic. Some storms form from the Central American Gyre as did Alberto, a perfect example of a June system when it's June too soon for African Waves to roll off with a discernable center, but the Bay of Campeche is always ripe and ready to deliver a system into Mexico. The other type of early close in system we find often is when something develops off a dead, floating, lazy frontal boundary that doesn't go away. Add in some Upper Level Low and a High to the North and we can often get something spin close to the coast that seems to pop up but it's been out there a while. Models do not always pick up on these fast forming systems that like BOC features seem to tighten up as they approach the SE coast and dump tropical rains on places such a as farms in South Carolina and Georgia that could actually use the rain. 

Again I am NOT a meteorologist, but I have taken many meteorology and geography courses for my degree in International Relations, as everything has to do with weather and geography ... for example Russia needed a warm water port that wasn't frozen a good part of the year and that is the basis of the current political issues centuries down the not so tropical road. United States is blessed with rain during the growing season for farms up in the Plains that get moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. I've also done a lot of research at the NHC Library, and yet learned much from a few people I know in high places. I'm a history researcher at my core but I'll stand at the shore watching storm surge surging in blowing strong wind at me and watching sea foam dancing at my feet. I have a degree in English which is hard to tell from the way I operate on Twitter but hey it's 2024 does anyone really use grammar anymore?

Back to what could become Beryl if it plays it's hand just right.

Models are awesome at sniffing out tropical development, however often they offer phantom hurricanes that hit New Orleans or Houston and then the system goes to Mexico (of course) or curves up into the curvature of the Florida West Coast and a small storm forms near the Big Ben that is probably carved out from eons of tropical systems pounding into it..   (just a thought) and often tropical systems can spin up tight in the curve, the crook of the Georgia Bight that you can see below from Jax to Myrtle Beach. Note also there is that same curve near Texas just how the BOC cradles developing systems. Sometimes models have problems seeing systems such a as this one that form "suddenly" but they've been there but the models didn't see them while they were obsessing with 2 yellow circles in the GOM Alberto and it's now orange friend known as Invest 92L.  

That's the Georgia Bight.
Looks like one too many storms ...
...took a bite out of it!

Watch those curves in the coast.
From left to right.
Texas coastline.
Florida Big Bend.
Georgia Bight.

The curve of the coast helps spin up often.
Close in.
This is close in.
Watch it.
Where does it go....
...where does it end?

Stay tuned.
But....promise you there will be a hurricane..
..later in the season.
in this general area.
Models will be picking it up.
Are you prepared?
Why not?
You're a adrenaline junkie?
You like going to Publix when warnings go up?
Helps you focus?
Maybe but the good stuff may be gone then.
Canned oysters will where the tuna used to be.
Been there back in 1992.
This is only Invest 92L should make you thik on Hurricane Prep.

Later Gator as my Grandma Mary would say!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter 
Mostly wxr twitter and Insta whatever.


Post a Comment

<< Home