Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 25, 2023

7 PM Invest 93L Florida Bound. Idalia Is That You Trying to Form... Taking Your Time Today. Red Circle in Carib.. Franklin Wandering Forecast to be a Hurricane Once It Gets UP into the Atlantic

Quick look at Franklin our sheared, wandering storm.
It's moved ESE for a while now.
It supposedly is turning the corner.
Moving slow ENE.
Making a loop.
Then it goes up into the Atlantic.
Note small spaces bewtween positions.
Indicates slow movement.

There's a front and at some point it feels the front and moves up into the Atlantic towards it. Once it starts moving, in theory, shear disappears and Franklin gets it's wings and become a hurricane.  And, conce that happens there is a change in the force of the tropical universe and between the front approaching and Franklin moving, 93L probably TS Idalia by then will lift up through the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall up near the Big Bend or Florida Panhandle. There is no cone, but I'd guess the end of the first cone for the I storm will be wide, from Tampa to ??? Pensacola with emphasis on the Big Bend. That is a guess. Over time the NHC will fine tune their cone and zone in on the aera most likely to get landfall. 

The big question isn't just about intensity but about how wrapped up the expected Idalia will be. IF it's tightly wrapped up it could intensify and landfall will be narrowed down. IF it is not wrapped up well and shear keeps rearing it's windy head, then it's possible it would  be a right centered storm with convection blown off across SW Florida into the Miami, FLL and Palm Beach area... that is an IF... it's not wrapped well and IF it's sheared. We don't have that info yet, and we are waiting for the true center to form and models to get better. 

So just know a storm could move up towards the Big Bend, and small towns along the West Florida coast may flooding, rain and storms.

We are up to 80% 
Pretty close to a done deal.

Earthnull shows a center forming.

As i said the cone should be around there.

Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.
I thnk that's the saying.

A few things to remember. 

Shear will be important, if shear is light it could become stronger than expected.

There's a full moon coming on August 31st, Thursday and tides are higher along the coast around the time of the Full Moon, this one is called a Supermoon. Often when we have a storm that might merge into a front you get a serious tornado threat. We've seen too many mediocre Tropical Storms underestimated and lines of twisters moved along with the storm.

The water in the GOM is hot. You know that. Could it become a hurricane, a few models show that. Time will tell. It's very early on still.

So hang tight.
If you are in this area.
Prepare as if you might get 93L
Take whatever measures you must do.
Note if it takes the right side of the cone... emerges fast over water NE FL & GA impacted.
IF it goes further West it goes deep inland.

Time will tell.
I'll update Saturday evening.

Keep reading if you didn't do so.

8 AM

With this particular set up it's dangerous to speculate on specifics. What we know is something is going to bring weather to Florida either sooner or later, further South or further North. #Franklin wandering, crossover energy lifting N .. front up to the N & showoff ULL in GOM. I'm leaving these words up at the top of the page as words in this case matter more than any image that will be presented below. Truth is 2023 has been a strange hurricane season with an array of systems that everyone thought would get named and did not. Hilary stole the show in the EPAC, tho her progression across the country created more chaos in her wake and more questions down the tropical road. Someone stole the Bermuda High and the very hot waters of the MDR didn't produce what was predicted and the Gulf of Mexico has a set up that looks more like early October in the tropics than the last week in September. August has been way too hot.

70% in the 7 day.
30% in the 2 day.

Today is August 25th, not June or October, and yet we have this strange set up. Temperatures in the Carolinas are in the high 90s, flirting with 100. A cold front is supposed to cool things off after this ridiculous Heat Wave and what will be by Labor Day is anyone's guess.

The Bermuda High is MIA on many of the models making it almost impossible for good tropical wave, cruising over hot water to get to this part of the Atlantic. Who saw that coming? The GFS is crushing on an African Wave leaving the EURO, CMC and ICON to dream of storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

The formation Zone is above.
It's very long as the timing is unsure.
Somewhere in there
Something forms...
...that's the idea.
Will the idea be Idelia?
That's the question.
Weak it's an Invest or a TD.

Shear has been an issue all year.

Invests and named storms having problems..
...gaining traction let alone intensifying.
Franklin blobby again.

Literally nothing in the MDR spinning.
But the Yucatan to FL on watch.

Franklin wants to go to the NATL.
Hot spot in the tropics since January 16h.

Our pre-season spinner.
Upgraded on May 11th.

That should have been our first clue...

I'll update later today.

Oh right you want models.

King EURO.
August 30th, Idalia makes landfall.
Follows Franklin out to sea.
Bermuda High on vacation.

Mike is the King of Model Grids ...

Ending here with a bit of history.
In 1998 we had a similar set up.
A different hurricane season.

Beginnng of September
Earl, an ugly Hurricane.
A controversial hurricane in the GOM
Making landfall in Florida.
Danielle a beautiful spinner in the Atlantic.
Earl followed Danielle out to sea.
As if it had a crush on Danielle.

Different hurricane season.
Similar set up.
Beginning of September.
I thought it was worth throwing in the mix.

I'll update at the top with the 8 AM.

We are watching the Yucatan.
Jury out on the high numbers predicted for 2023
Time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter Instagram and Threads
Twitter mostly weather, Instagram wxr and whatever.
Threads...when I remember to use it.


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