Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Updated. 11 PM - Still 90% Red in 2 Days.. Any Day. Any Time. Track Map Up at NRL. Stay Tuned......... Where Does It Go? NE Carib Islands Pay Attn Til We See Which Road It Takes.

92L officially has a friend.

Models for 92L below.

Current models.
Yes, all over the place.
Again 1 track westbound.
Track 2 pull N somewhere.

An image....

There are so many scenarios bumping around in my brain, swirling here and there as I remember this storm and that storm. Some year eludes me, we tracked early waves one after another. Some stole the convection from the other, some had rudimentary outflow that inhibited development of the 2nd wave. You can see where 92L is close to attaching a link... to the wave behind it. They do that sometimes in the Eastern Atlantic as they cruise W into the MDR. Looks like a gas line was attached, keeping the lead system going. Other times it's different. July of 2005 had storms tracing each other's tracks in July and we thought THAT was early. 2023 is definitely interesting times.

This is an odd different year, with wild Spring like Weather complete with Tornadoes and lines of Severe Weather and African Waves possibily developing. GFS can't forget about the Carib storm it wants to develop while flinging 92 up into the Atlantic. The EURO, generally more accurate and totally boring compared to the GFS has it plodding along still. Still 90% Red and I imagine the NHC will look at it all in the morning with good morning visibles and wait to name anything. Honestly, no reason to rush tonight into naming something. And, yet they have their new 7 day Cone so they may have to make some sort of product to put out as we are getting closer to the Islands every day. But, still far out......

2023 is Far Out Weather wise.
We had a storm from January upgraded to the first storm of the year without a name still :( and then Arlene formed and turned South in the Gulf of Mexico. Now we have 2 waves the NHC is tracking with percentages and the GFS love sick over a Carib Cane it keeps wanting to form... even if it's only showing little closed lows on various runs.

Looks like Spring in Texas and the South.
Looks like August in the Tropics.

Good night!

* * * 

This says it all. 
Upgrade coming.
More reliable than the NHC red circles.

90% in the next 2 days!
Formation Zone touches the Islands.

These are the islands that should be watching 92L

Reminding y'all that Mike has all this incredible information on his Main Page and it's just easy to remind you with a grid showing both models on top (from Tropical Tidbits) and possible intensity on the bottom.
As always til it ramps up, we have info from the center via recon (dropsones) and other measuring devices on the new beautiful planes models are a stab in the dark.  

Strong systems turn North faster more able to bust into a High Pressure Zone and weaker ones tend to bobble along, very OCD like some little tortoise programmed to not stop until they make it into the Caribbeam. In 2017, the last Bret, was such a storm and was promoted to name status as it approached Trinidad and Tobago, a present for the extra credit work it put in and then as many early storms do gave it up in the Graveyard of the Caribbean where shear tends to reign and knock the crown off the contenders little center.

2017 June 18th, 2017.

I'll say it again. 2017.
A busy violent hurricane season....
...but the B storm was barely there for the party.

Bertha 1996.
 Larry Cosgrove used 1996 as analog year.
For what it's worth.

A rare track for early July.

92L getting there.
What will NHC do?

As for me today....

Went out shopping in Raleigh with my husband for some things we needed, wanted and decided to buy. It's hot, and when I say HOT I really mean with a capital H and bright RED throbbing font. I bought a small chocolate milk shake that I only drank half of... because it was so dang hot and the lines in Walmart were moving tediously slow even though there's no one there by Miami standards here in Raleigh.  Going to write some up here since I splashed images up above and I may update later this evening if and when the NHC upgrades 92L later today. Doesn't the word "splash" sound awesome??

90% is about as high as it can go thouh if you were in AP English you'd definitely want a 100% "special notice we are upgrading at ____ " because who wants 90% when you could have 100%?

It's hot... I may be dealing with emotional heat stroke. I'm fine. Gloing to take a cold bath if I don't feel better soon.  Actually just waiting to see if NHC has put out any press notices for an upgrade. But, to me it looks not quite there yet.... time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

Chow for I used to write.

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram. Twitter mostly weather and Instagram wxr and whatever.

Great song, stuck in my head.



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