Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 14, 2022

Karl Not Around For Much Longer... Headed to Landfall in Mexico. 20% Yellow X in Distant Atlantic. Tropics Relatively Quiet But Possibilities Down the Road But We are Headed Into Winter. Raleigh Shooting Shatters the Normal Peace of Life Here.


Karl is a minimal tropical storm.
Slowly moving towards Mexico.
Not much to add.

20% low yellow chances of development.
African wave in the Atlantic.

This is not prime time of year for African waves. The only real way they become a threat is if they move West under the radar and get closer to more favorable areas such as the Caribbean. Occasionally one manages to do that and becomes a player but it's a long journey and currently the NHC isn't giving it much attention and for good reason. It is there and that does say something. I can't rule out a part of it's energy pops up again closer in.

This really says so much. A tropical system down in the BOC and a huge frontal boundary stretched across the whole of the East Coast and connected all the way to the Upper Midwest, where the next stronger cold front will move down through the country bringing cooler weather. You can see this by looking at the next 7 day forecast for Raleigh where I live.

Those are 30s in the forecast next week!
We are already in the 40s and 50s.
Dry weather anchored.
Blue skies.

So you are wondering if I think this means the Hurricane Season is over? No not really, but the main threat of constant vigorous waves moving towards the East Coast, Florida or getting into the Gulf of Mexico and heading towards Texas is pretty much over. But, often things form at the end of tail fronts and that cold front bringing weather in the 30s at night to Raleigh, should make it down through Florida and die out in parts of the Caribbean or near Cuba. If moisture lingers it's in a favorable area for tropical development. Usually, with this set up they can suddenly veer NE out of the Caribbean into the Atlantic. Sometimes a system forms at the tail of a front, much as happens early in the season but again this is a real tangible feeling of Winter not so far down the road and Autumn in the Carolinas was ushered in by Ian helping to amp up the Fall Color and flip the switch to winter concerns vs tropical weather. 

Frost and Freeze coming next week. Says it all!

As I said pop up surprises happen in October and we had that when Karl popped up after the forecast showed a quiet period in the tropics. November even gets wierder. So stay tuned, but it's obvious the season is winding down.

I have a migraine, that means a lot of pain especially around my eyes. Luckily I type fast without having to look at the keyboard so it didn't take long for me to write this blog. Of course it messes me up when in a .chat because the algorithm times me out as most people cannot type as fast as I do. 2022 problems.

Another 2022 problem showed up late yesterday afternoon when the local news went to a shooting storyline that went viral and became national news. A small nice working class neighborhood with little golf courses built along the Neuse River Trail a favorite walking spot for people in Raleigh. We have "walking trails" everywhere along lakes, rivers and even Crabtree Creek and people can walk, jog or ride a bike for miles. My husband's best friend drives over to that trail with his bike when he wants to go for a long bike ride. The whole Trail System begins up the road from me and ends way further South than where the shooting took place. Be clear the shooting location on a day with no traffic is about a fifteen minute drive from me, as we rarely have real traffic problems. It was about 8 or 9 miles away, so while feeling "safe" where I was the sense of safe was shattered and I was sad violence came to others in this beautiful city of Raleigh

I'll be honest I am not a hiker nor a person who walks trails, especially through wooded areas where there's very little scenery and sometimes secluded. I'll walk the High Line in Manhattan (awesome views) but not really into the hiking scene. But, that said, people in Raleigh are very outdoorsy and love nothing more at the end of the day than taking a walk around Shelley Lake closer to me and as a matter of fact my two youger kids Ubered over last time they were here to do Shelley Lake.

That said........last night several people were shot at and killed doing their hiking the trail thing, probably behind the homes they bought specifically because they were nestled into the curve of the Neuse River in suburbia outside Raleigh proper. Some young kid only 15 years old for some reason not  known as the Press is being beyond secretive on the motive as well as the death of a 16 year old boy he shot that he seems to have known but again the press is in "active investigation mode" and despite a plethora of possible motives and names of the killer nothing is being shared publically. Usually when the government is very secretive they are trying to micro manage details that could get out there and become an even bigger issue than gun violence, mental illness and a society where something goes wrong way too often. 

That's sad because I have to tell you except for Long Beach California, I've never lived in a place where people are so warm, friendly, caring to the degree that if they move their shopping cart a bit too close to you or block an aisle at TJMaxx they stop and apologize profusely.  It's a good, healthy, beautiful place to live and more often than not we are free from violence you see in crowded cities. But, in life as in hurricane season it only takes ONE angry person to start another tragedy such as this one. 

That is sad and prayers go out to everyone in that nomrally,  relativel, peaceful neighborhood who knew the people killed or heard the shots and ran to call them in fast so the police could get in and shut down the area as fast as possible. And, that's it. Sad. Living in Miami you get used to violence as it's every day on the news in some story of some shooting or car rage where someone runs over someone they had a beef with or someone on drugs runs down a busy street at night slashing at people with a machete. If you don't believe me follow any OnlyinMiami or OnlyinDade site online where people are either partying having fun, doing odd things or having huge brawls in public with others taping it and uploading it to said site. It's a mish mosh of funny stuff and tragic stuff and totally off the world stuff you don't see in most places and especially n ot in places such as Raleigh that are a bit boring but incredibly normal if you want normal. 

But ugliness and anger, violence and death always creep in somewhere.

And I just have to wonder what drove a kid who lived in a nice place where most live happy lives to go grab a long gun and take his rage out on people he knew or didn't know or those just jogging on a nature trail to relax after a hard day at work. The video I'm showing here is of the trail near where the shooting took place and where the police shut down many highways in that immediate area.

Have a good weekend!
Stay safe!
Stay sane!
Find ways to enjoy yourself this weekend!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.
Not proofing this as it'll bother my eyes.

Ps Years ago I used to hear this song and liking James Taylor I obviously liked the song. Now I live here and I understand why people miss it as there is so much beauty here and it's a great place to live on Planet Earth. It's still a good place to live, you can choose where you live and who you love and what you love to do. Glad I'm here. Much love ...from Carolina... Bobbi 


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