Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 21, 2021

Now Days Do We Say .. November Remember? As the Hurricane Season Often Goes Late These Days? Strong Cold Fronts, Possibilities in the Tropics in a Week or So... So Keep Watching!


You don't need to know a lot about meteorology and all the charts and maps I use to know that there's not much going on in the Atlantic in the tropics. A few bumps of yellow like yellow leaves that dropped into the backyard pool. All the orange and yellows are up in the high latitudes where Winter is creeping slowly in.  Check out that swirl up in the North Atlantic!  Winter is in the wings. 

And, another issues here is the Eastern Pacific has been healthy this year, whereas for no apparent reason the Atlantic over the last 6 weeks has not lived up to it's expectations. So take a look at this map below and you can see what I mean in that what forms in the deep SW Caribbean keeps crossing over into the Eastern Pacific moving Westbound.

While it is possible and happens that things forming in the SW Caribbean move North and catch a cold front, this year they have been slipping West. Sometimes a piece of that remining moisture makes moves North away from the part moving West and sneaks North looking for a free frontal ride out of the Caribbean. One or two models hint that could happen, but as the majority of models do not show it ... I'm just saying it's possible but not currently probable.  And, yet some models show indications we may have something to track so we keep watching but nothing to worry on.

Years ago before we had the great models we have now, we used to live and die by this graphic. Candy Cane red always looks good on this graphic if you want something to track in the way that Candy Cane dresses look cute for Halloween or candy canes for Christmas! But will something form and grab that diving wild cold front that's coming down the road or muddle it's way into the Eastern Pacific. 

Now keep in mind this is one of those strange anomalies of this year in that this time of year it's usually dead quiet in the East Pac and still bubbly in the Atlantic, yet not this year. But maybe...

I said I wouldn't show those models for early November, but since Mike is showing it I'll use his graphic! I just don't feel confidant enough to wax poetic on it but love to listen to Mike who claims he has memorized my mind in a tropical way (of course) so yes I am watching it. We all are watching it, but we watch lots of things that never form.

This is the long range, really long range image that people watch that puts together all the models people watch long term to see if there is a chance. You know as in "Is there a chance Bobbi? Tell me there's a chance" and hey I'm not going to argue with November weirdness in the tropics ...  Fronts dive down vs dipping down and then they snag whatever is down there, sometimes they pull it wide right aiming for PR to get out of the tropics going NE and then suddenly the front goes stationary and it wanders about and said system weaves around and moves back towards Florida and well if you remember Gordon you see what sort of system this time of year can bring when fronts are active yet it's not quite Winter.

Yes, this track actually happened in 1994, forming on November 8th and ending on November 24th. It should have had it's own book titled "3 Weeks in November" or as I have it bookmarked as "Hurricane Gordon Wild Track" but tracks such as this one do not happen often. But they happwn when a front dives down, grabs it and then loses it's grip and the storm swirls around in odd ways waiting for a really strong front to KICK IT OUT! 

1. Westbound, really low wave moving towards South America. 
2. Tail ends of fronts.
3. Whatever moisture you see from the Yucatan down into the SW Caribbean. 

But even storm chasers are beginning to drool over the next big cold front! Not the next cold front, but the one after that... 

November Remember these days is the saying but what will really happen? There's a chance but until I see something coming together and jelling I'm just watching curiously. Check out that crazy, strong system coming into the NW and you know what enters stage left does not stay there but moves center stage down the road... keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Instagram whatever, Twitter mostly weather!

Ps Had this song stuck in my head all day yesterday so sharing it with y'all ...enjoy. It's perfect for November Hurricanes and ghosts of Gordon!
Stay tuned. 

I'll be back if and when something develops.


Post a Comment

<< Home