Invest 92L off the Carolina Coast.
Blogger is giving me problems this morning, I know it's a Mercury Retrograde....
So I'm going to type and not upload pictures and I will update the blog later today after the next set of model runs, unless the NHC surprises us and upgrades Invest 92L off the Carolina coast with some sort of designation. Sometimes it lets me and other times not... so I'll do the best I can.
There is a healthy signature of some form of closed low off the Carolina coast where the weak yellow circle is located that has been designated Invest 92L Again, that is a designation of an area being officially investigated not the same thing as being given a name or given a Tropical Depression number. It's got some nice curvature and is amping up convection along the the NC beaches as witnessed by the image I was allowed to post here below. Personally, I don't think it's ready for prime time and it's just a weather maker but you never know what the NHC will do these days. So this is what is officially an area of interest.
With regard to the SW Caribbean, the current convection in that area is Westbound into the Eastern Pacific. And, I must add here that the EPAC has had a healthy season. Also, if something forms in that region, as fronts are in play (much like the Caribbean and Florida) anything that forms could make landfall this time of year vs going out to sea. You can see the area I'm talking about and you can see the deep orange and reds that are working their way into the Epac. That area has a 70% chance of development, basically it's a done deal!
Next I want to talk about "the wave" and the constant speculation whether a Westbound wave will get into the Caribbean or in that part of the Atlantic adjacent to the Bahamas and near Florida and become a named system and possible late season storm. It's possible. It's always possible. But what it does will be based on day to day actual weather vs long range forecasts of where a front might be, how strong a front might be, and the placement of the High and any other factors still far out beyond the forecast window that I do not like to go past.
It's October, hurricanes happen even though the old nursry rhyme says "October, all over" and that for the most part of Hurricane Country does work as some parts of the hurricane coastline are somewhat protected by the movement of fronts in October. South Florida especially is vulnerable as is the Bahamas and as Hurricane Sandy reminds us hurricanes can be a big issue in the Northern Latitudes.
2 examples from Hurricane History are Hazel and Sandy.
Hurricane Hazel from Wikipedia.
Track shown below.
Note the similarity to Hurricacne Sandy below.
You see a pattern here.
Let's try one more... Matthew.
Yes, Michael and Wilma came up from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean down near the Yucatan.
Every year is different, however the pattern for October Hurricanes is very obvious even though often we get October Surprises somewhere close in.
So stay tuned.
I can upload some images and not others. Hope they show up in the blog, but basically a westbound wave gets into the Caribbean and develops down near South America and feeling the pull of a front pulls North up towards the East Coast. Hazel, Sandy and Matthew are the storms that formed and made impacts, so many others just formed and turned NE and went out to sea. And, in this particular year I'd add they can develop and get pulled way out to sea and no one remembers their name.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps If you can please donate to Wikipedia, they have a campaign to raise money and we use them so as Mike would say we should "tip" them and it's a good way of thinking on how to support someone, some site you appreciate!
Next name up is Wanda... could that really go down in history?
Well none of us thought Andrew would so ... I never make assumptions.
Song up above... blogger is odd today but hey it's working better than Facebook so ... I'll keep my fingers crossed!
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