October is like the 8th Inning... You Think It's All Over........But Not Yet. Late October Brings a Surprise BOO! Often After a Quiet Period. Did the Volcano Dim the Hurricane Season at Prime Time? Maybe... Research Will Tell... But SAL Out there in October. (SAL Like Choking Volcanic Dust)
You're right, rarely do I show this graphic in October, and originally decided to show it as the hole in the golden, orange fall colors is a tropical wave trying to survive in a dusty ocean that should not be dusty in October. It's a wave worth watching in my opinion as well as the SW Caribbean Watch shown below.
There's the wave in purple.
But it's being chocked off to be honest....
...because of the untimely SAL
(Let's say it's volcanic dust not really SAL ...
...but using the SAL phrase still the same)
And oh look the SW Caribbean.
That purple blob permanently anchored there in October.
Not really ... but feels like it!
So let's talk on weather and other weirdness and how they may or may not interconnect. Though in reality everything makes a difference. Yes, butterfly wings theory in the chaotic pattern of the universe.
Link to put that into motion is shown below. Love these products on this incredible site.
Above 2021 Hurricane Season.
Most of what formed in September was weak.
Below is 2005 a possible analog year to this one.
Analog years picked out by various agencies are great to look at but don't always pan out as weather happens in real time, like a baseball game. Or football... you know "on any given Sunday" any team can win. Big gap in July but SAL was strong out in the Atlantic, after a speedy burst in June when waves came off of Africa looking like they should in August. Upwelling and Sam and Larry busting through the once, strong and mighty High Pressure.
But how much of a bite out of the wicked prime time in the Atlantic did the volcano take ... that erupted on September 19th which is really prime time in the Atlantic Hurricane Season? And, the season went flat not counting the "shortie" type storms or barely there tropical storms that lanquished as demoted tropical depressions!
BOOM!
Something to think on....
Many hurricane experts had said we would be busy way into November.
La Nina building.
Kelvin Wave and his friends.
HOT WATER in regions prone to hurricane development.
Everyone has said October & November would be busy.
Other than slow moving Sam ... October doesn't look too busy.
September was almost eerily devoid of drama.
Ending with what the graphic I usually begin with....
0% off the SE coast.
Some amped up rain at King Tide time.
Our African Wave swimming through Volcanic Dust.
SW Caribbean convection.
Personally i do believe that October will have a nasty BOO! closer to Halloween Time. Where exactly I can't say... but let's look at the map put up by the expert and thanks to Thor because I noticed it on one of his awesome videos. Brian McNoldy is seriously one of the best to follow on Twitter as he knows his stuff really well and is great and sharing and communicating his wealth of knowledge of meteorology!
Stay tuned.
Usually they can pop up anywhere....
Close in to Florida or down in the Caribbean.
Or they form down in the Carib .....
....and well you get the idea..
Stay well!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps It may be the 8th Inning but it's not over yet! Great game last night.. yes lifetime member of the Red Sox Nation ...
It's easy to blame Larry for the quiet few weeks in the Atlantic for numerous reasons and it's friendly, fishy sibling Sam that did to the Western half of the Atlantic what Larry did to the Eastern Atlantic.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:29 AM
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