Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 27, 2021

Hurricane IDA 80MPH - Forecast to be a CAT 4 HURRICANE... How Strong Is the Question. Also Foward Speed at Landfall on GOM a Question. Good Forecast Currently from NHC - Now is the Time To Do What You Gotta Do!

80 MPH Ida...
...forecast to be 140 MPH
Cat  4 on arrival possibly...

Not a very sexy exciting picture but it's the discussion from the NHC that they expect Hurricane Ida to become a Major Hurricane and have 140 MPH prior to landfall! Storm surge, inland flooding and a track that takes it far inland towards Tennesee creating more inland flooding. Remember, Camille left people dead in Virginia far from landfall due to flash floods. A Major Hurricane can do major damage at landfall, near landfall or far inland.


You can see the track of the storm thru Tennessee...

across the Carolinas and Virginia.

Models as of 6 PM

Let's ignore that model.
Eventually as I said below you get one model...
..pulls from the pack.

The NHC track at 5 PM is consistent.
Consistently dangerously bad.

The NHC always says to prepare for a category stronger than forecast and currently it's forecast to be a Cat 4 (which i knew would happen) and that means prepare for a Cat 5. Not much I cacn add that I did not add earlier.  It is forecast to explode tomorrow into a dangerous Major Hurricane and move rapidly at first towards the coastline while slowing a bit on approach in the general Louisiana Mississippi. I know the media loves to blow up NEW ORLEANS and trust me I LOVE NOLA but there are many towns and places in it's path and a buzzsaw Cat 4 can do unspeakble damage as a direct hit. Again Nola did not get the brunt of Katrina and actually took it quite well but the levee failed. Towns like Waveland to it's East were devastated.

So pray for those in the track. Watch for any irregularities in the models or subtle changes in a track that has already been pulled from TexMex to Texas to Louisiana and do not be surprised if it gets tugged a bit more the East even if that is not currently in the forecast.

Either way it's a bull in the proverbial china shop and it's going to wreck someone's life badly.

I'll update Saturday evening. Please keep reading my thoughts on concerns I have for trouble to the East of Ida. A developing hurricane forecast by the NHC to be a CAT 4... prepare accordingly for a Cat 5 meaning if you live in low lying areas... get out of town, any port in the storm is better than low lying coastal land!

11 AM Cone of watches and warnings.

Compare to the 5 PM above.
It's the same cone of concern!

I really think Ida takes the right side of the Cone.
Or it bends just a bit more to the East.
But between now and then much will happen.
More on models later.

Well aligned storm ...stacking vertically.
That allows it to explode and grow in size.
Strength and size. This is the link to the Dvorak, image shown above, but you can use many other loops there as well as obviously an incredible floater.  Always watch the storm in real time as opposed to getting lost in models. Models can be perfectily aligned on one run and then one or two break from the pack. What does that mean? It means that one model vs the others sees something different as a possibility because something has changed. 

What could change here with regard to the forecast? A strong Major Hurricane and this could easily be a Category 4 if not more are prone to ceate their own environment that aids them moving Northward towards the poles and protects them at the same time.  Some people carry back up batteries to charge their phones in case of emergency, you know cute ones they found at TJ Maxx on sale cheap. Other people buy those huge back up battery chargers that feel like a brick but can charge your phone for the next day or so not just for a few hours.  A Major Hurricane IDA is like that huge battery pack that feels like a brick, costs a lot of money and keeps it going way longer than a weak storm dealing with land interaction or shear and not vertically aligned.

Strong Major Hurricanes want to pull North towards the poles and what blocks them is a high to the North or blocking their movement to the NE keeping them going NW or NNW towards their target. When a front approaches they jump on board and ride the front to the East Coast. When they slow down it often means the steering currents are weakening or something has changed. High Pressure builds in to their North blocking their rapid movement or the high to the East of them begins to erode a bit as they love to trace the High.  The forecast is for the High to remain strong and that is why everyone is screaming LOUISIANA! but I'm concerned definitely on Mississippi as well as it's neighbors to the East. Mississippi and Alabama share small narrow coastlines that slam up against the wide Florida Panhandle. 

Also the strongest impacts are usually to the right of the eye with regard to storm surge especially with the type of Major Hurricane that the NHC is selling in their excellent forecasts for this intensifying hurricane. But there is always some fly in the ointment that shows up close in before landfall and what that fly may be doing I can't say but I can feel it. Slowing down on landfall cfreates a Harvey like scenario, slowing down can mean it's beginning to change directions more and lean more to the right at landfall due to the high eroding. Possibly the weather out ahead of helps weaken the high or possibly the huge outlow of a Cat 4 Hurricane erodes it a bit. No way of knowing this minute but IF there is an issue to deal with it will reveal itself. The forecast slowing of speed of a Hurricane that can intensify close in as many like Hurricane Michael have sone makes this particular situation a dangerous one on many levels.

This image above shows the moisture (fuel) to Ida's South.
It also shows much moisture to it's North...
...again the High is forecast to build in.
There are literally lines out ahead of Ida to Nola. 
Grand Isle. Bay St. Louis (MS)

Below we see the water temperatures.
Ida sitting over very hot water now.
Then finds more hot water later.

This can be found on

Below are the current models also from the site above.

Watch the next model runs to see any changes.
So far they are tracing eachother to Louisiana.
There's always that one wayward one.
Watch any trends.

That eye is gonna pop out soon.
Keep watching.

I'll update after the 5 PM package. A reminder I am offline on Saturday as I keep the Jewish Sabbath (which allows me to recharge my battery) and I'll be on Saturday evening after sundown. The NHC has been very good with this storm and any changes in intensity or track or forward speed they will deal with in real time. AGAIN..........use the NWS they are your friend. TWC can be found on ROKU as is Weather Nation. Mike at Spaghetti Models does an incredible job being live on air and talking when ever he can so use him

More to come later after the 5 PM.

Everyone in the track of IDA prepare NOW.
Do what you got to do.

But know hurricanes in the N GOM often bobble a bit.
And too often they do it at landfall.
So forecasts are good but this evolves in real time.

Stay safe and stay informed.
Helop anyone you can before the storm hits.

I'll be on Saturday Evening.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


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