Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

70% RED BLOB in CARIB 11 PM (No Invest Yet but...??) Watching Carib for Tropical Developments -Waiting on the Next Model Run.... October Tomorrow... Are You Ready? Florida Are You Paying Attention??

To be clear....there's a Yellow circle in the 2 day.
The wave we have been watching move westbound.
The blob in the Caribbean is now at 70%
So far they haven't made an Invests.
Imagine in the morning...
It's at 70% so that's impressive.

Area 1 70% Red to the Left.
Area 2 20% Wave moving West.
Front o the North... 
Area 1 settling into the CAG.
Inception should begin soon.
Then what?
We will know tomorrow morning.
Just a late night blog with data to keep.
In my online diary I share with y'all.
Sleep well...
October 1st is starting off with a bang it seems.

Blog from ealier this norning.
Enjoy....or sweet tropical dreams.


Another view I love from this morning.

Looks a Cone or a Zone.
But nothing there... but clouds and the front.
Tropics today...
...what will it look like a week from today?

Today we have a yellow circle in the 2 day.
60% in the 5 day.
Cold front draped across Florida.
Another wave moving west into the Caribbean.
The players are on the stage rehearsing.
Reading the script, getting the feel for the it all.
Models taking guesses... some hate it, some love it.
Some like the GFS slam it into Florida...
...but each model run differs.
The Euro as it has been all 2020 is yawning.
Jim Williams says to watch the UKMET ...
...once something forms.
Told him I would once it gets a center.....

On the left the GFS goes bonkers.
The EURO yawning on the right.

Dabuh has sayings about waves.
Never take the first wave.
Who knows waves better than Dabuh?
But I'll apply that to cold fronts.
Bet on the reinforcing second front...
...and the added oomph from that wave.
Then things should come together.

Great loop up on

What do I think?
I'm looking long term right now.
October 7th through 10th time period.

Cold front comes down...
High builds in a bit.
Convection comes together.
Kind of like an incubator...
... and then we see something pop up.
Out of the CAG  Caribbean Gyre..
Waiting for next model run before talking GFS...
I'll update later today.
Expecting an Invest soon ... 
...more better models.
Yes "more better"... we say that Down South.

Leaving you with some Hurricane History.
October Hurricanes ...
Which kind will this produce?
Will it produce? 
Time will tell.
That Time will be October.
Oh and if you think we hype storms now..
...back when they really knew how to hype news!!

That was a headline for a Tampa Hurricane.

I'll tell you the truth, the real "Boys of October" are not baseball players but those mean storms that form deep in the tropics waiting for a ride on a cold front to zoom their way up into our part of the world such as Mitch and Matthew; I know never forget Wilma. Sometimes they are wimpy sort of storms such as Floyd in 1987 and that may sound mean but it wasn't anything like the Floyd yet to come in the 1990s. Floyd 1987 is the Hurricane we drove through to get the 2 year old stitches, a quasi casualty of the storm because if we weren't at my mother's "sheltering from the storm" he'd have been home at sleep in his bed rather than hitting his head on the headboard on the bed he was jumping on but I digress...   but hey it's my memory of that Floyd. We went home later that day, even the Sukkoth the little wooden hut in the backyard for our Jewish Fall Holiday hadn't blown down though some palm fronds we put up for the roof did fall in. Same holiday in 2005 when Wilma blew through it knocked out all the power, trees and damage a ghost of a stronger hurricane shouldn't have caused in a big city but our infrastructure was exhausted and weakened from Katrina and Rita that came through earlier that year.  

Floyd above a minimal hurricane. 

A common flow of moisture in October.

Below a Tampa storm... caught a  front.
Cruised up from the Caribbean, stronger.
Similar but different.
Storms of October.

Are you seeing a patten here?
That's the pattern we have now.
This October 2020

A front literally sliced down into Florida.
It'll be felt in Tampa but not Miami.
Sexy beautiful image there... Winter on the way.
Next front slices further South...
And that's what October is all about.
Fire in California.
Rain on the East Coast... often Tropical Rain.
You can cancel they gym and State Fair..
...but you can't cancel Mother Nature and Climo.

So let's do some Hurricane History.

But reminding you that you can get Floyd from 1987 or the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1946 or the messy 1948 hurricane that crossed the Florida Keys and cruised into South Florida after crushing Cuba with a heavy blow. October is like that proverbial box of chocolates you never know what you'll get til it's in your mouth either making you excited and happy or repulsed and spitting it out fast hoping no one will see. 

What is the difference? As I said before it's all about the fronts in October, how deep the front dips and what the orientation of the front is when the storm forms and races up towards the front in some meteorological magical romantic drama as last days as the last days of summer and fall fade away and cool air finally blows into South Florida. The week after Hurricane Andrew in August was hell, almost as much of a hell as Andrew had been and Andrew raced through the hot, dead calm, heat that enveloped us with no water, electricity or ice to cool us off was horrific... the cool weather after Wilma with the kids making a fire pit and roasting the once frozen turkey was like a Fall Carnival as we went about cleaning up and waiting for FPL to turn the electric back on. A tale of two hurricanes. Trust me the one that comes in October is way easier to deal with after the storm than the August one!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Since we are doing history today let's do the old original version.


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