Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Updated with 8 PM Tropical Storm Arthur Spins Towards North Carolina, OBX and the Front.

Late Night Update.



Updated info is below.

The facts as we know them.
NNE at 9 MPH.
Still 45 MPH winds.
There is an eddy of warm water closer to the coast.
Yes long range models show the curve back SE.
Will see down the tropical road.


Before and After Imagery.
The one on the left is before....
...the one on the right is after!


Arthur has lifted North.
Closer to the coast of NC.
Outer Banks near the track.
Rain, surf will be kicked u a it.
In the middle of the country we see the ..
...dark blue feature.
Looks like a tornado doesn't it?
Moving now as that upper feature kicked up..
...took over and is pushing East slowly towards.
A Date with Arthur.
High Pressure still digging in North of Arthur.
Moisture left down near BOC.
Just observations.

You can watch in real time.
As the front moves East...
And Arthur lifts slowly North (NNE)
Rain bands moving onshore.

Save
clt_None_anim.gif (768×496)

It's like watching Arthur on Netflix 
...except your on Hurricane Harbor ;)



And a good night wave from Arthur.
As the sun sets...
Arthur winks goodnight.










As the sun rises on Arthur.
Pinwheel looking system.
Heavily right sided for now.



Official 5 AM Cone.
Will update with the 11 AM Cone later.


Our 2 players.
As you read the blog remember these features.
Yes, I know the blob below Arthur.
Again vertically aligned.

Most important info from Discussion
As of 5 AM Arthur forecast to be 60 MPH.
Will this change at 11 AM?
Could Arthur flirt with Hurricane strength?
Watch the trend as always.
Trend in intensity and trend in forward speed.

A lot going on this morning and more concerned with the timing of the Cut Off Low and Tropical Storm Arthur slowing down to 9 MPH forward speed than the details of the cone. The models have been messy in the long term and they show Arthur has 2 choices after it approaches the Outer Banks wide left or wide right. Or does it just mix it up slowly with the Cut Off Low and slowly moving frontal boundary and create a rainy, flooding mess across a good part of the country? Models were out right whacky last night so going to wait for the next model run and the new data from Recon that may go out earlier rather than later into Tropical Storm Arthur. Also most importantly watch Arthur as it evolves off the East Coast.

Let's focus on the maps below.
And less on "the Cone"

Note that moisture (blue) covers a wide area.
Note the orange vertical line...
...coming up from the GOM
Alabama Northbound.
It hits cooler air to the North.
That will produce severe weather problems.s
Then there's Arthur off the coast.
You can see that the moisture is wrapping.
We should have a prettier system today.
I also think Arthur may be stronger than expected.
There is high pressure to the North for now ...


This grid from www.spaghettimodels.com shows much.
The green is obviously rain.
Heavy rain.
Not from landfall.
But from systems colliding.



The deep reds, magenta and purples...
Not good.
5 Day forecast for rain.
Heavy rain.
And not all from Arthur.
Though Arthur gets a vote.

Below we have a look at another loop.
Arthur has a lot of moisture there.
It  knocked Miami that wasn't in a cone..
...for a loop.
Long time Miamians said it was like a hurricane.
Like a hurricane in that it was torrential rain.
And extremely gusty winds.


Here's my thoughts regarding the set up.
I will update this afternoon after the next set of models.
Why you ask?
Last night's models were messy.
Like they drank too much chocolate milk...
...and well threw up all over the place.


Honestly... so let's get the new recon data.
And watch the next model run.
And WATCH FORWARD SPEED of Arthur..
And any movement of "the front"


And another loop with discussion.



So what does this all mean?
It means May and June storms are difficult.
The mixing with frontal boundaries
(be they on the move or stalled)
Often create severe weather and flooding.
Flooding inland not at "landfall"

I'll update later.
Enjoy the old time video below.
Another A storm that came early in the season.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps ...Did they know how to do Drama back then or what?




posted by BobbiStorm @ 4:41 AM

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