Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Updated. New Yellow X Just W of Key West. Thoughts on Tropical Development near Florida in the Bahamas in 5 Day Range. Arthur Are You There? Will You Be Subtropical or Tropical? Show Us Your Face!!

X marks the spot!

NHC updates with a Yellow X in the 2 Day.
Has IKEA like graphics.
We've all put beds together...
...we can do this!

Leading with the video I made earlier.
It's a cheat sheet.
Cliff Notes.
For those not into long reads.
But I hope you keep reading.
Still at 70% RED in the 5 Day.

In theory an Invest should be here in the morning.

Note they say the next update will be Wednesday at 9 PM.
Or earlier.... if necessary.
Still at 70% high confidence something will form.

Let's look at their graphic above.
Note the frontal boundary has moved on.
Leaving a bit of energy in the GOM.
North of Havana and West of Key West.
Those are warm waters...
...not hot water but marginally warm enough.

Know that the waters off the East Coast..
...will warm up this week.
A mini "Heat Wave"
Is going to fill up the beaches ...
...and warm up the water.

Again this could be Subtropical 
not Tropical.
It's evolving.

What I love about this Old School Loop is...'s old school with the grid.
It's easy to read without a degree in meteorology.
And unless you love my attempts at prose...
...if you have a degree why are you here?
And thanks to those who are....
I know who you are....
Watch the front thin out.
The old front.
What's left behind is rooted in the GOM.
Florida Straits.
Florida awaits for more rain.
As eventually this crosses over...
...into the Atlantic.

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So much to say today and yet in ways today is just the day to wait, watch and see where and when this evolves as placement of it's formation will change everything down the road. We are currently in  monitoring stage and waiting and watching the new model run. The NHC has it on their 5 day page because it's not happening today or tomorrow. However, as I said two days ago weather evolves before it suddenly begins to spin. The models show the same general idea "something forms" or tries to form but they have slightly different timing and track suggestions. Models are not carved in stone they change and become more defined as the system itself rears it's head and we see what we are dealing with as well as........the bigger picture becomes more defined in that we see if the front is as strong as forecast and the location of the high that could trap it or could help it slide out to sea quietly.  Oh and Bermuda could be impacted in some way but that's too far down the road. Not taking anything off the table with this because until it shows it's face, develops some sort of core we are talking on possibilities and probabilities not reality. Reality has a way of biting when you least expect it and aren't in the mood.

What's my mood? Home today... exhausted from yesterday's 6 hour Zoom Convention that was oh my gosh incredible with speakers from Israel, Argentina, Africa and America. We stay home now days more and yet the world has contracted and is at our finger tips as we talk with old friends in real time on Zoom, Facebook and Twitter. I've actually talked to friends on the old fashion phone more than usual... usually my phone is my camera and my way to Google things. So went out for a ride afterwards and we watched the sunset and got a few things at Sprouts Market in Raleigh that is cleaner than my house has ever been and filled with fresh produce and wonderful people who work there. Being a writer and researcher I don't mind being home, but I'd love to go to Wrightsville Beach and feel the wind. Now I'm wondering if the Pier is open... Hmmn. Put that on the "to do list" to find out if it is open or closed. (BREAKING NEWS... the Pier IS open... modified hours... but yes, it is open....)

I'll update the blog later today if and when models show something worth showing and if it's necessary for the NHC to say something else. To me this will be a Coastal Cruiser... how close to the coast is the big question and where and when does it meet up with the front and what happens then? Subtropical could mean it's wind field spreads out and impacts areas along the coast more than it if formed into some minimal, small tropical depression or tropical storm.

The name would be Arthur.

See y'all later!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Not my favorite song, a bit too much piano and hard to dance to but will think of something else tomorrow.


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