Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, May 26, 2019

El Reno Tornado. A Deadly Night of Sudden Terror on the Plains. Hurricane Season Coming Soon. Now is the Time to Prepare.

2 Dead, at least 29 Injured.
Listen to the link below for on the scene reports.

So far 2 deaths have been attributed to this tornado.
They are still searching through debris.
There was a motel... seen above.
There was a trailer park.
There was a car dealership.
Some of the cars landed in the trailer park it seems.

As I type this morning I'm listening live to the Mayor of El Reno speaking on the aftermath of last night's Killer Tornado hearing explain what they have found so far while searching and still hoping to rescue people trapped in the debris. I listened to him just before I fell asleep late last night giving an interview working his way through the immediate after effects of the late night tornado that swept through his town. I'm pretty sure he hasn't slept. Many of us were up chatting last night and tonight the same area is under the gun from nighttime tornadoes. Nighttime tornadoes really are the worst as you can't see them coming, you most likely fell asleep thinking you'd be okay and some other town would get slammed in the middle of the night and yet if you don't have a relative who stayed up or a loud alarm you ware woken up in the middle of your world being torn apart.

Hurricanes are different in that they don't form suddenly and take immediate turns in movement, they are slow to form often, slow to pull together, slow to build and often can be tracked tediously over time and forecasts given to as to time of arrival, time of the strongest winds and you can be shown charts as to where storm surge will be the worst and where inland flooding most likely will occur. Similar cyclonic beast, especially those Major Hurricanes, but totally different in that you can prepare, hunker down or get the hell out of town.

This leaves with you reading this with one question here on Memorial Day Weekend when many of us have a 3 day weekend with competing sales selling things for Memorial Day Weekend that can be stored away for hurricane season.... have you started shopping for hurricane supplies and if not why not as now is a good time to do so. Grills are on sale, sodas, juices, snacks, peanut butter, baby wipes ... the list goes on and on and on and yet have your made your list? Every one has their own unique list depending on your own unique concerns.

Back in 1992 when we got to our local Publix before Andrew for the spending spree that happened the Saturday night before he made landfall Publix was out of diapers. We had a lot of kids in diapers back then and it was obviously a high priority. We remembered the Walgreens that was usually used for tourists and yes we grabbed the last of the diapers there as we had easily three in diapers still. They had set up a television near the counter where we could all watch the moment by moment pre storm coverage of Andrew which really basically was "yes, it is coming, no nothing will make it go elsewhere" while everyone in line kept thinking "oh my God it's the end of the world" but just in case it was not the "end of the world" we had diapers or baby wipes, first aid supplies, medication and whatever had not been bought by the first people who ran out shopping earlier in the day.  Disclaimer here we did not buy water. I had 70 some odd gallons of water stored away in Publix soda bottles that we had washed out and filled with water for weeks because my best friend kept insisting we were getting a hurricane so yes I had water. My friend was right, she's often right, she's worried there will be a hurricane in the South Florida area this year...    Buy water!

What do you need?
What is your specific concern? 
Baby food? Diapers? Baby Wipes?

Are specific drinks important in your life?

Budweiser and CaprSun.
I gotta tell you I always knew Bud would survive forever.
But CapriSun who knew that would still be here today.


Think Hurricane Season Supplies.

Lot's of things besides hot dogs and mustard are on sale.
Cereal... snacks!
Lock em up somewhere.... 

And always buy peanut butter as it's the first thing to go...

Trust me on this or you will get to Publix and ....
...all your find left is canned oysters.

My daughter in law lived in the area that Andrew made landfall and she spent the night as a little girl in the babtub with her mother, brother and a mattress over their heads as their father did his best to protect them. The first thing she did when Irma was due to hit Miami (before it swerved down to the Keys for a direct hit) was book a ticket to New York and get out of town with her baby daughter. My son drove north with baby daughter's older brother and several of his siblings a few of which were pregnant to Raleigh to safety. Irma was a family reunion in Raleigh of sorts.... others stayed, hunkered down and got very lucky they only got a bad hurricane not the eye of the bad hurricane known as Irma. 

You can decide now where you will go if you evacuate, where you will hunker down in a safe place if you stay and what food you will have for the next week or two or three because trust me after Hurricane Andrew it took a while for the grocery stores in Miami to reload supplies, get the power back on and reopen as it took MONTHS for life to be normal again. 

One of the silver linings of Hurricanes other than them often swerving away on random occasion is that you can prepare so please do so.

El Nino is moderating and I do not believe it will be a big player in protecting the Atlantic Basin from huge hurricane formation as we move deeper into the Hurricane Season. Water temperatures out in the infamous MDR are warmer now than they were last year. Saharan Dust aka SAL is out there as it usually is but it is not the monster outbreak we have had in the past being a moderating factor. Because of very early hot temperatures water close in along Florida and the Carolinas is already way hot enough to sustain some tropical activity and shear is forecast to weaken soon in regions where tropical storms and hurricanes are prone to form in June and July. The ever unpopular CAG (Central America Gyre) is anchored early down near Central America with part of it in the Pacific and the other part in the Caribbean.

First note the convection in the Caribbean.
Yes it's in the EPAC but rarely is the Caribbean so lit up in late May.

There is an area in the EPAC trying to form...
It's having problems.

It's already down from 30% yesterday.
If shear weakens as forecast.....
...and a tropical wave makes it into the Caribbean.
We could have the ingredients for a storm of some kind.

Across a wide region again thing CAG....

Shear is forecast to weaken.
Models go back and forth on possible development.
The longer it congregates the more the chances go up...
...down the road.
Does it move North?
Does it go wide left towards BOC?
Florida and Eastern GOM?
(that disgusting horrible high would need to move)
Whatever forms will trace the edge of the High.
When and if that is........

Okay I'll be honest I hate that HIGH.
It's hot today and it gets hotter later in the week.
It was 99 degrees down near Fayetteville NC Friday.
It is expected to be 97 in Raleigh later in the week.
That probably means 98 but they don't want to go there yet!
It's heating up the water and making life intolerable.
I may spend Thursday in the bathtub.
Yes I have a good AC but ....... good can it be with it's 93?
I swear you can feel the heat in your body.
Your head gets funny.
You end up eating ice cream... slowly.

Anyway I digress.
Buy Hurricane Supplies NOW
Use your time and your money wisely!

It's easier to prepare for Hurricane Season....
... it's easy to be a hurricane tracker.
it's even easier to be a storm chaser.
Knowledge is power.
Last Sunday everyone thought the Twister season was a bust.
This Sunday they are cleaning up debris and looking for bodies.

If you live in Hurricane Country....
Start making lists.
Start shopping.
If you see Memorial Day stuff on sale that can be used.
Buy it and lock it up somewhere.

This Hurricane Season is expected to be bad.
Dangerous especially along the US coast.
And possibly in the Islands.
Much depends as always on the High.
The high is not forecast to stay there forever.
Fronts will be watched... as always.

We watch... you shop!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time info.


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