UPDATED - NEW YELLOW AREA IN THE ATLANTIC 30% in 5 Days. A Look at May Tropical Storms. Remembering Beryl. Models Hint At Possibilities. 91E Forms in the Pacific But... Where Does It Go?

30% in 5 Days in the ATLANTIC.

This is why I said I would update the blog later today.

Special Tropical Weather Statement from NHC

Note currently there is a trough there.

And what happens at the tail end of a trough?

Sometimes.... something forms.

Potential for development!

 Lightning monitor shows this trough well.
It's been steady and active all day.

It also helps when their favorite models shows something.

Again something.... not a full blow hurricane.

Something...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

You can see where it forms into something (maybe) and then pushes up into the Atlantic. It's a strong high so if something forms I'd wait to see what may or may not happen. Much depends on the strong low that should be moving across the US making tornado chaser's hearts go pitter patter! Keep watching. While watching let's look at a case in study known as Tropical Storm Beryl from 2012. Liked that tropical storm as I remember it well as on a frequent Florida trip I was there. Note 2012 was notable for storms that originally formed close in and well we all know how 2012 ended in late October with Hurricane Sandy. 

A May Tropical Storm to Remember.

Remember as in learn from history.

Could something like this happen this year?

Today is a good day to remember Beryl, a tropical storm with borderline hurricane force readings that made landfall in Jacksonville before it could further strengthen. It formed from a nasty area of weather down near Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas that brought flooding rains and eventually became a subtropical storm that eventually became a tropical storm. It's obvious that Beryl getting a name was an eventual kind of thing that rarely happens but can when there is a persistent area of moisture over one area in late May. We have a similar set up currently, but we are not expecting a Tropical Storm Beryl to form over the next few days. But the area is ripe for something to try and develop if shear continues to weaken and where the water is warm and the moisture is there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Beryl_(2012)

Currently today we have 91 E in the EPAC

Yes, we have an Invest there today.

Not formed yet and questionable what it does if it forms.

I'll be back later with more thoughts.
I'll look at some models for the Atlantic and EPAC.

Some thoughts currently on 91E are it may try to cross over....

Sometimes systems do that.

The flow is West to East.

Shear exists.

Time will tell.
Will we have an Invest in the Atlantic soon?

More concerned on what is still lingering around Florida.

And the rainy season combined with warm sea surface temperatures.

Brings us tantalizing possibilities.

Note the green area is anchored there...

..models show increased possibilities in the SW Carib also.

More on models later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter