Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

UPDATED .. Discussion Viable Waves is the Story Today. New Wave Has 20% Chances in the 5 Day by Africa. But Will it Blow UP in the GOM? Keep Watching.

Updated thoughts.
We are still at 20% yellow..
Area being "monitored.
Love the way they say that...

Clean and simple.
Nothing is developing.
It's being monitored for development.

Map above shows the areas we are watching.
Within that yellow circle from the NHC
Again the models are on the wave that is about to come off.
Not the last wave that is swimming.
The tropics below.

Note the dark maroon swatch in the Atlantic.
SAL is visible to it's north.
It's a seasonal battle between these two.
Waves have the advantage in September.

Some discussion from online that's worth noting.

The concern is on these waves making it into the GOM.
For now we are looking there as the High is huge.
So generally a wave would stay on the S side of the High.
Around Tampa... it comes together.
Models tomorrow could vary a bit remember that.

Models from
The EURO model.

Not so far down the road above.
Huge, huge double high.
That should mean Westbound.
Below is the last image.
Long range.
Brings a storm to GOM.
Also shows many possible storms forming.

Those are models. Not reality.

This is a complicated set up in that the NHC is saying "watch the area near Africa" for possible development over the next five days (though subtract their nada happening for the 2 day) which really means day 3 or 4 or 5. Of course that can change if conditions warrant a bump up on the 2 day. Confusing at times I know. 

The real concern is down the road the first week of September as models (several of the "better" models show us that development occurs in the Gulf of Mexico from a tropical wave that waits until it crosses South Florida (or the Florida Straits) to pull further to the North (remember there are cold fronts on the move a bit by then that attract the storms) and as the wave gets over extremely high octane fuel water in the Gulf of Mexico is begins to wrap up. This is a very, very, very long range model but it's plausible and logical and it could happen. Winds need to be low so that there is low shear. High pressure to the North often helps low pressure to the South form. If a wave stayed somewhat intact that long it's got something there to it and it could turn into something problematic. Talking just after Labor Day not Labor Day; that could change in real time depending on what actually happens vs modeling scenarios. 

There is also discussion on a lead wave being a Fish Storm in that it forms and swims up into the Atlantic Ocean vs Westbound. Models show a virtual tropical wave Shmorgasboard. Like a tropical buffet with a luncheon special for the whole month of September. 

No never ate there but looks good.
Has great reviews online.

Cranky is less cranky than the King of Sarcasm.

Maybe we should buy him a tee shirt ;)

What he is trying to say is (if I may translate for him... not that he doesn't do an incredible job of explaining his thoughts) "It's Summer. Deal with it. It will end. It's NOT the END OF THE WORLD"

@crankywxguy words and maps above.

But it is hot, very hot today in the NE.

My concern here is not worrying on when summer will end, I know it will as I'm sipping a Pumpkin Spice Frappe as my way of pretending it's cooler than it is and will be soon...  But my concern is the extremely high temperatures are only going to make the water off the coast of New England and the Mid Atlantic that much warmer. At some point the High breaks down a bit, it always happens, and if something is out there lurking and finds that path to the North open it will slide up along the East Coast and it could threaten the coast with a landfall rather than swim out to sea. Obviously, this is a concern not a definitive threat. The pattern, as CW likes to say, is there and you have to watch a pattern carefully with an eye to what has happened in the past and how that region gets real tropical weather vs watching them slide by off Long Island and barely missing Cape Cod. See the water temperatures below. The warm water is far to the North and would support a strong hurricane should one form. Posting images of water temperatures... be they an anomaly or just the way it is it's a reality so deal with it and prepare accordingly should something form and models show problems.

Anomalies above.
Awfully warm in NE
Both in the air and in the water.
For now the GOM is the problem.
Well unless a Fish Storm breaks free....
...and gets closer to the East Coast.
Note the "Fish Storm" has not formed yet.

Note the water by Africa has warned up too...
West of 55 latitude it's a friendlier place for waves.
But the waves have to get there.
The friendliest place is the Gulf of Mexico.
Let's look at this area closer up.

Those colors are in this year for eye shadow.
Fall fashions showing that plum maroon shade.
Not a good color for a hurricane to wear.
Should a tropical wave get into the GOM.
And should the shear be low.
And a frontal boundary to the North.
The area from Texas to Mississippi needs to watch it carefully.

Now look at Africa.
That's the wave the NHC is watching.
The area being monitored is where that wave will be.
But really there are several concerns.

Ghost waves that ride across the Atlantic.
And increase in convection later.
Avoid the trap of Hispaniola ...
... sniff out warm water.
Those are what I worry on right now.
For a window of time...
a week to two weeks away.

Look at the wave train over Africa.
Individual cells yet one bit ITCZ
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone.
Where hurricanes are often born.
It stretches out into the Atlantic.
That's the story today.

Viable waves is the story today. The NHC put a yellow circle onto their 5 day map with the 20% chance of developing in the FIVE day meaning later rather than sooner, however the 2 day map shown above shows nothing. It shows the NHC doesn't really think much of that lead wave as per modeling.
It says the robust wave in the Atlantic already doesn't impress them much. That's not totally true, everyone's watching it but it doesn't impress the models much so they have moved on to the next strong wave. Obviously if the wave without the model support can look that good today, imagine how good the wave with the model support can look on Friday or Saturday? Because models.

I know the lead wave looks like a good wave, it is a good wave and it has maintained it's structure after splashing down in the ocean where most of the other waves fizzled in the cooler waters of the Atlantic. Every day the waters warm up just a bit more and more. This is a long term tropical diet, like Weight Watchers promises you if you just stay there and keep paying, going and doing the program you will lose weight. Kind of like if you stick out the heat, sticky part of summer you know that it will snow in January if you live "Up North" somewhere. Yes, Boston winter will come. Tell that to a person in Miami or Houston? It may be hot today in the NE but you know the days of "hot" are numbered. The wave above is staying low below the drier air evident in the light blue polka dots and maintaining color despite the lack of model support.

Above shows the 5 day yellow circle.
NHC plays peek a boo with these models.
You'd think in today's world.......
...they could make these 2 graphics side by side.
Just saying.
Speaking of peek a boo.
Our next wave is just coming into view.

Let me show that model above again below.

EURO model.

Oh look there's a small L in the Gulf of Mexico.
We've been talking on that for days now.
Without the model support.
A high latitude cruiser (Fish Storm()
Pushing anything that forms WEST
The concerns here are long term I said.
After the wave wanders West...
Past the high pressure.
Cruising thru Florida and Cuba as a wave.
Or something stronger maybe.

I'll update later today when more info comes in.
Watching models, satellite imagery and history.
We learn from history.
Knowledge is power.

Nothing to worry on currently.
But September is a few days away.
Are you ready?

Besos BobbiStorm 
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...The water in the GOM is on fire practically.
So if anything gets in there...'s something to worry about.


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