Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Waiting on Upgrade for Harvey. 100% Texas In the Cross Hairs. 92L Sliding Along Florida

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Harvy on the left of the screen.
In the middle hard to see is 92L

Harvey now at 100% 
Watches and warnings are being wondered on now.
Soon we will have something put out by the NHC.

Below is 92L  
Harder to see but it's still there.

I'm putting up some thoughts here and expecting to write a longer discussion later as the NHC is expected to upgrade the Ex Harvey Wave Invest in some fashion in a little while. I've had a lot of questions regarding Texas and Harvey and Florida and 92L and it gets tiring saying "watch and wait" but in truth that is where we are at regarding both systems.

Harvey is in better condition, obviously, as it has a 100% chance of developing according to the NHC. They took measurements using the Gulfstream Jet and hopefully the next full set of model runs will have better information in them and they will therefore give us a better output. Because the models are a bit over the top this morning. After refusing to develop Harvey they take it near hurricane strength close in along the Upper Gulf of Mexico Coast. Rainfall projections in the path of Harvey are huge and a similar set up to Matthew last year with regard to North Carolina are fresh in mind. Let's put it this way, Harvey has been traveling since Africa towards this destination and it has moisture and potential to keep rolling that moisture far to the North INLAND of it's probable landfall. Landfall is not the end game for tropical systems, it is only a step in the process. It's a matter of the "finish line" however in most of our heads. No, it's just a step onto land and then the question is where does Harvey go or in this case not go so fast. When the steering currents are weak, sometimes they pick a system up and then kind of leave it alone a while until the next steering current comes along. And when that happens we usually get a huge flood threat that goes far inland, in this case possibly past I 20 vs I 10. So listen up areas that will be in the cone of Harvey... pay attention to what happens AFTER landfall.

Rainfall projection:

The models are making people nervous.
And for good reason... 
... get a plan.

As for 92L

So what do we think and what to we do? If you live in the path of the projected track of Harvey you take it seriously and don't expect nothing because it looks weak now and like nothing. Ever hear of "getting a hurricane plan?" Do it. And again understand this isn't about a big huge hurricane (tho hurricane strength is being forecast) it's about flooding and flooding by any name for any reason is a big pain to deal with and can be life threatening.

I'll update later with more track information when the NHC puts one out. Til then, if you live near the cone.. think seriously on what you need to do as time is ticking and running out fast.

As for 92L it amps up the rainfall in South Florida and most likely up the Florida coast. As it moves or rather wanders over the warm waters of the Gulfstream... it can develop. Even if it doesn't develop, it WILL add to the rain totals shown at the top of this post. 

My gut tells me everyone from Galveston to Houston..
San Antonio
Sabine River can get rain
Rain can form everywhere...
...and go nowhere.
Just sit there and rain
92L isn't set in stone.
But it's there..

Besos BobbiStorm 
@bobbistorm on Twitter for faster in real time discussion.

As for the Eclipse it's in the rear view mirror. On the right is after the eclipse began and well into it, on the right is how it looked in Raleigh at 92%. Pretty impressive. 


At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Okeetee said...

Cutting right to the chase.....the only big thing we need to know about Harvey is HOW FAST is it moving? If it's moving 3-4 miles an hour it's going to dump a lot of rain in it's path. If it picks up speed and moves at 10-15 miles per hour it will come and go without much ado! So, how fast is Harvey going to be moving when it hits land? Inquiring minds want to know!


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