Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Possibilities of Tropical Trouble in the Near Future as June 1st Approaches.Make a Hurricane Plan Now. Mother Nature Started Early in January

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3 Things to note on the above loop.
That moisture in GOM just won't stop.
Remnant of Tropical Wave by South America..
Front about to stall off the East Coast.

Think of those as ingredients.

Waiting for a baker to come along and grab them off the shelf.
Rumor has it Mother Nature is taking baking classes...
Speaking of the shelf and grabbing...
...go shopping sooner rather than later for Hurricane Supplies!

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Sunday Sunday.... only 9 days til the Hurricane Season and this year unlike the last few the signs are present that point to a possibly strong hurricane season.  Strong as in bigger storms, strong as in storms that go the distance, strong as in storms lots of storms. Hard to say if we are talking lots of tropical storms and a few big hurricanes or multiple hurricanes mixed in with the usual tropical storms.

Looking at the loop above you can see what the NHC points to...

There are waves embedded in the monsoon trough.
We used to call that ITCZ but now we say MT ;)

Seriously tho... 

Very viable waves for late May.
Waves making it all the way to South America.
Not enough lift yet to miss SA and make it into Carib...
...or skim the Carib and slam the islands...
Not time just yet to pull from W to WNW to NW.

But it's not that far away.
Again now is a good time to prepare and make plans.
I say plans as sometimes situations are fluid and change.
Our lives are often fluid and dynamic.
Your plan for a June hurricane may not be the same ..
as an August hurricane.

Basics the same but the devil is in the details.

Speaking of details. There are a few worth mentioning.
Two specifically.

Notice the purple areas off the coat of the Carolinas.
That's the possible system I spoke on last week.
Also notice the green across South Florida..
...adjacent waters such as Bahamas.
Green for Above average rainfall.

As I said to my friend on Twitter....
.... it's hard getting past record rainfall for Vero Beach.
Heavy nonstop rains in Tampa.
Never ending moisture coming in from the GOM..
...hanging down in the Florida Straits.

He said. I said.
It's all part of the discussion.
I agree on record rainfall totals for Vero Beach being big.
Also extremely warm for May in Florida on most days.
All that rain and warm temps = humidity.
Lowering of pressures slowly.

Sometimes this time of year conditions spin up early Tropical Storms.
In the same way late in the season you get a few that run the late fronts.
Hot, cold, hot, cold.. short term cold, then extreme heat again.
Stalled out frontal boundaries mixing....
.... with left over tropical moisture from waves that fizzled.


Models are indeed sniffing around for tropical trouble.
A bit early but after a few quiet years who can blame them?

Good discussion by Dabuh, good video at the end.
Yeah what he said... important not to focus on one or two runs.
Also one slow moving barely formed TD can create havoc.
ESPECIALLY in areas that have already had record rainfall.
Talking Florida, Texas and South & North Carolina.
A bit worried more this year than usual on Charleston area.

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Watch that loop and you will see that North Atlantic Storm.
Also been a huge pocket of warm water off NE coast this Spring.

He also goes out on a limb a bit with a possible system further south. The point is the fact that there are even possibilities is what gives this coming season a compelling reason for thinking on what you would do it a hurricane came, passed over or lingered over your home or business.

He's not the only one...

For a really well done discussion on the 2016 Hurricane Season.
Sit down with a cup of coffee or whatever you prefer..
Turn TV off or Netflix... Relax.
Listen carefully and enjoy.

Very informative and very on the money.

Just a teaser of some of the great info on that video

You'll have to watch to see where that possible track thru GOM goes.

Jim goes that extra mile speaking on where hurricanes may go.
What areas may be most impacted.
He actually draws out possible tracks ..
A lot of El Nino bye bye discussion...
..with an explanation of La Nina and why that ups the ante.
Spoiler Alert
"La Nina = more robust systems"
Note depends on more than just La Nina.

Good image he puts up to explain the word robust.

Being Jim he points out that Bill Phillips has graduated from college.
He's worked hard on that degree and everyone is happy for him.
Bill is an inspiration to many of us to go after our dreams.
His dream currently has been a degree...
...and to make a difference in his field.

Jim's present to him for graduation is to help him intercept a hurricane.
So bring on those canes ;)

Oh and as next weekend is Memorial Day and I'm sure you have plans.
Work on your hurricane preparation plans THIS Sunday. Now.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps For now it's a lot of tropical talk.
This season may be a throw back to busy seasons.
Only time will tell...


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