Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Broad Area of Circulation with Little Organized Convection. Messy ... So messy. Azores Uh Oh...

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So many ways to slice and dice this BROAD... LARGE system with a cyclonic spin. Recon went in this afternoon and found a broad closed circulation-ish not near the strongest convection.

No strong convection = no name.

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The arcing band like features are more visible on the visible. Duh... right?

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Nice. Very nice. However it's taking up most of the BOC and rain is already blowing off towards South Florida. West Palm Beach had flooding rains earlier today.

Worth noting that the system in the far Atlantic with the BIG swirl is also being monitored by the models. Okay, it's like Mother Nature is mocking us here...

This graphic shows chances for development... 

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Better chances then the BOC lopsided system.

But all eyes are on the BOC system so that is what we are discussing tonight.

Just don't lose site of the larger picture.

Note new wave moving off of Africa. Wave in Atlantic battling shear and BIG Swirl off Azores. the way we have bases over there... we are watching it carefully even if all of the talk is about the BOC, GOM, 305 and Fantasy Fest Forecasts.

It does have a yellow x on NHC main page... don't be surprised if they "find" a storm out there..
You heard it here first.........a possibility.

While playing fantasy cane never lose sight of reality... 

What's in a name ;)

Back to the BOC system and note it's not a "storm" but a system but still let's discuss the possible Hanna and what she might be like down the road....

Storms like this always remind me of Hurricane Earl in 1998. That was August, this is October. More likely to track further south unless some cold front ramps up fast.

No tropical met can say "Earl" without rolling their eyes and qualifying how poorly Earl looked for most of the time we were tracking it.

"Hurricane Earl originated out of a strong tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on August 17. By August 23, a weak area of low pressure developed within the wave and well-developed convective activity was present as it tracked through the Lesser Antilles. Once in the Caribbean Sea, strong wind shear produced by the outflow of Hurricane Bonnie inhibited further development of the system. As it remained well-defined, satellites easily followed the low pressure into the Gulf of Mexico. By August 31, the storm had become sufficiently organized for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to classify it as Tropical Depression Five. At this time, the depression was located roughly half-way between Merida and Tampico, Mexico.[1]
Operationally, the NHC immediately classified the system as Tropical Storm Earl based on a Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance missionthat found flight-level winds of 49 mph (79 km/h), corresponding to surface winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). Due to the existence of multiple circulation centers, the initial movement of the storm was uncertain, but forecasters anticipated a general northward movement.[2] In post-season analysis, it was determined that the system intensified into Tropical Storm Earl while located about 575 miles (925 km) south-southwest of New Orleans. Initial advisories on Earl relocated the center of circulation several times before focusing on the true circulation center.[1]"
Above is from Wikipedia. Says it as well as I can or anyone can.

Earl wasn't pretty but he was briefly a Hurricane and had more centers than 3 Faces of Eve. Think Vicky/Nicky on One Life to Live if you are too young to know what the Eve reference is...

The problem with the track is the same as I mentioned earlier. Confusing possibilities.

Current models show that it could go South just as easily as it could go NE towards Florida.

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Don't lose site of reality while looking at models.

TWC showed a story tonight on Hurricane Opal in 1995. Nice, but no soap radio. Nothing about this system that has any comparison to Opal other than the same breeding ground.

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And, note Opal started on the East side of the Yucatan. No one noticed as the whole world was watching the O J Simpson trial that was coming down to the wire.

Mind you it's looking more like a wishbone model than spaghetti models.

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In truth it's very likely that it is going to continue to pump moisture up and over towards South Florida. The GOM is going to be messy for a few days. Still not convinced that the real thing forms on the East side of the Yucatan. Might be remnants of this system meeting up with a wave that gets into the Caribbean and moisture from the deep SW Carib.

Look at the wind flow chart for this area. It's windier than it was in Pretoria today when they were trying to report on Pistorius trial.


The front comes down... moves back up or possibly goes flat and splits down near Cuba. It's a very fluid situation and I do not trust fronts in the Florida Straits when it's not yet Thanksgiving. 

Current forecast for Key West for the rest of the week. 80s daytime. 75 Low at night. Rain sometimes heavy, sometimes not.

Looks like more rain... 

What else is new?

Sweet Tropical Dreams...

Bobbi Storm


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