Tropical Update for the 305. GOM? CARIB? Don't Worry Be Happy Today.. (maybe later in the week...hmnnn) Everything I know about life I learned in LA in the 80s ;)

Let's talk about the tropics and possible development.

Worth noting yet has not been highlighted by the NHC as yet is the flare up of convection in the Atlantic moving towards the Islands. This is the very active remnants of an old tropical wave that has always had problems maintaining itself. Not the best wave as far as being "well formed" but then again a wave is a wave is a wave. Whatever rudimentary signs of circulation there were was not attached to the stubborn convection. Happens often... those are the wanna bee storms that never get a name. Sometimes, they get one when the low pressure center becomes better aligned with the convection and vavavavoom suddenly there is something to talk about..

Why am I talking about it when you are wondering about the system in the BOC that should move into the GOM possibly towards the 305? Because it's worth talking about. Though there is no yellow X it is quietly being monitored by the tropical powers that be. See the circle on the bottom image?

See just above the circle over the wave... 

"someone" is watching it... 

Let's watch it a bit... has a nice roll going on there. 

A better "roll" than anything in the BOC... 

Hmnnnn.... 

NHC be like tropical wave stalkers... 

Official tropical weather discussion:

"..TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 16N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 
16N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W."

They are watching even if they don't say anything. IF this wave manages to maintain convection they will say something... and IF the right models notice it and provide model support. 

Meanwhile those same models showed support for a system developing in the BOC. However watching the weather satellites it's obvious upper air conditions are not sooo favorable for development.

Wake me up if something organized officially forms there...............  

Just playing with ya...  you know I'm watching it while I listen to oldie goldies from the 80s. According to a very reliable test I took on Facebook I'm an 80s chick. I grew up in the 80s it seems. I'm also like ice cream, my hillbilly name is Savannah and I was Mata Hari in a previous life time. Wow...the things you never knew about me. Amazingly they didn't say Mary Bo Peep. (Hope someonewasdrinkingtheircoffeewhilereadingthisblogthismorning) 

Model tracks for the system in the BOC show a confusing picture. 

Like the scribble scrabbles from a Libra trying to decide on a track for a very weak Hanna.

(Tell me you can ignore all that color moving towards the Caribbean Stage Right??)

One thing you have to know about me is I will never give you regurgitated weather discussion. I purposely do not read other blogs or discussion online until I write this blog. I do watch the models, view satellite imagery and other meteorological data.

It's more likely going from a climo view point that something will develop closer to the Caribbean and whatever that something will be will be a difficult track to forecast. We are much closer to early November from a meteorological view point. Cold fronts are a common site in South Florida. Some Octobers we are dying from heat stroke and have not a clue where our cute boots are... not this year.

Caribbean systems that do odd tracks are typical for late October or early November.

Will us old timers ;) ever forget Hurricane Gordon from November of 1994. 

Then there was Karen tracing the Fish symbol in the Caribbean in late November. 

Then we take you back to 1966 when Hurricane Inez said "I'm gonna do Miami... or OBX or" ...and then said "no I don't think so" 

Cold fronts come and cold fronts go and often stall out and go flat this time of year in the Caribbean.

Check out this 7 day loop from the NOAA.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html (loop it... )

Note there is a cold front and then it goes flat. Perfect set up for a mish mosh, Caribbean System. You have convection, the dead front sort of tickles the convection, sometimes low pressure drops and the next strong cold front is up near Alaska. Leaves the door open for a "which way do I go" system as the closer front moving East is weaker than the one up in Alaska. 

Weather is large and has a large scale aspect to it. You can stalker like stare at the floater but you need to see the whole picture.

You see the area in the BOC and GOM headed towards the 305 (Miami) is really part of a long monsoon trof that stretches back into the East Pacific. There is a HUGE system in the North Atlantic near Europe and you know what that's the remnant of and that leaves us wondering "what is going on with that tropical wave in the Atlantic" . . .

Take a good look at that system in the North Atlantic. Wow.

So the search goes on for the next Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane.

Since I'm in an 80s sort of mood and yes the devil is in the details I'll leave you with this witty little 80s tune... and thought...

Besos Bobbi

Ps On Fantasy Fest... Key West... 

Close up of the most recent satellite. Pack the raincoat for Fantasy Fest for now..

NWS discussion for KW

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

931 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.CURRENTLY...

THE LARGE SCALE VIEW IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN

GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE

EASTERN SEA BOARD...THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND BACK TO

THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIMIC TWP DERIVED PRODUCT SHOWS

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA

AND WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE KBYX RADAR HAS PLENTY OF

SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS INCREASING AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GENTLE TO LIGHT OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

.FORECAST (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF

CAMPECHE...WITH A TELECONNECTION TO THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND HAS SHOWN A BURST OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND AN UPDATE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST MAY

BE REQUIRED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

SHORT TERM THIS MORNING FOR THE NEED FOR AN UPDATE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST RESOLUTION WILL ONLY NEED FINE TUNING FOR

CONSISTENCY.

Feels like Rain... then again it rains a lot there so don't worry on it... don't worry.. be happy!

Rain or shine... best place in the world is Miami and Key West...