Gonzo Forms! Recon Goes In... Tropical Storm Gonzalo Comes Out

And, suddenly there were two...

....where does it go?

Note that PR & VI are in the Cross Hairs.

You can see Fay departing in the top right of the screen.

Worth noting just for nostalgia that there is moisture in the SW Caribbean.

Despite dry air trying to invade the system Gonzo keeps rolling along. Really hangs in there. What worries me on this is that the constant battle with the dry air could inhibit his growth and allow him to get further to the West. Note he is not moving fast. He is only moving at 10 mph westward.

"The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a
strong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to
move generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour
time frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of
the U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo
to move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast
closely follows the consensus model TVCN.

The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less
than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady
strengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be
occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow
the intensification process, but those occurrences should generally
be short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS
intensity model."

What does this mean?

As I said earlier the high ridge to his north is keeping him from gaining any latitude. There is a trof aka cold front moving off of the US coastline that would pick up most systems. Gonzo's size here could present problems with what should be a closed, done deal forecast. Odds are he catches the trof and travels north ... but personally... I feel it's too soon to write him off for a lunge further west than previously expected.

Note the wind probabilities include islands far to the South of previous model discussion.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

Let's look at a map of the Caribbean. The area circled in yellow is currently under watches or warnings. Note this is not a matter of worrying on Gonzalo brushing the Virgin Islands. Should this watch/warning area slip south at 5PM I'd pay attention to the trend. 

Note that Fay blew up stronger than expected as in models under estimated it.

Will Gonzalo also intensify and grow or will the dry ridge to his north keep him in check?

My issue with the current "out to sea" forecast is that it's hard to see it happening just yet.

Most likely will miss Florida and turn in the Bahamas but...way too soon to say where.

Why? Look at the high.. it's moving out ahead of him...

trying to reach down into him..

It's  life and death drama in real time...

What's below him?

An ample supply of moisture.

Gonzalo grabbing moisture from the area behind it.

Also Fay is pulling from the moisture to it's South..

In the short term Gonzalo should go West.. WNW... 

Shoulds don't always work right with small systems.

In the tropics size matters.

Small systems can be tricky. They barely show up on big loops as you can see above.

Online the discussion is cooking.

Chasers on their way to the Islands and maps galore..

5 PM Discussion should have more information.

Next model runs will have information from the recon plane.

Some minor difficulties delayed the information feed from the plane earlier.

As always with a storm going into the Carib watch www.stormcarib.com for great local details.

Example:

"TS GONZALO

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos at anguillanet.com>

Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 15:31:46 -0400

Right now, new TS Gonzalo is forecast to pass about 80 miles to our south late tomorrow (Monday) with winds at the center perhaps 63 mph, gust to 75 mph.  We – as well as most of the islands – are under a tropical storm warning.  But TS force winds extend out only about 20 - 30 mi. to the north, so expect maybe some 30 – 35 mph winds here with perhaps some higher gusts.  Probably be a pretty good rain event.  Also, I would expect some beach erosion on south facing beaches – especially during some strong SE winds.  North beaches should be fine.  Advisories will now be issued every 3 hours, so keep checking.  It is currently at 16.4 N ( we are 18.2 N) and is expected to keep moving due west until Tuesday.  If this holds true, it will pass well to our south.  But need to keep monitoring it’s position to see if it moves further north.  As always, keep checking the advisories for any change."

Great info.

I'll be back later so keep checking in for updates.

Bobbi Storm's Bottom Line:

Too soon to say when and where Gonzo turns...for now he is west bound under a strong, mean ridge.

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. Gonzo Literary Links:

http://realitygumbo.com/2011/11/22/hunter-s-thompson-likes-mermaids-maybe/