Finally Fay 70 MPH. Squalls to Affect Bermuda. Is Gonzalo Forming in the Atlantic?

Finally the Fay name has been used and is on the board.

Tropical Storm Fay, five miles short of hurricane status, is due to possibly impact Bermuda.

" only a slight deviation to the west of the forecast track would bring the center

and core of strongest winds very close to or even over Bermuda, and
for that reason the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a hurricane
watch for the island."

Tropical Storm Fay is being sheared currently and therefore Bermuda had a higher than normal chance of receiving strong weather from Fay. Note the wording above and how closely Bermuda is monitoring this Tropical Storm.

Note how large the area of squalls are within Fay.


There is a chance that Fay could briefly reach hurricane status as she moves North and away from land.
This blog tonight will briefly cover the tropics as I catch up on all the model data. I was offline for the Jewish holiday of Sukkot. We build small cute, huts on the deck, patio or yard and eat in them this week. Reminds ya of being in the desert years back after leaving Egypt on the way to Israel. Add in it's at the Fall full mood we tend to decorate them a bit and eat lots of fresh fall dishes. So, tonight I'll just go over the facts and tomorrow morning give a more in depth discussion.
Some people decorate a little.... 



Some people decorate a lot...






In 2005 in Miami, Florida we took down our Sukkah so it didn't go whoosh in the wind during Hurricane Wilma.
As I have said before... this time of year usually brings tropical development in the Atlantic.
This year is no exception as the ocean has come alive with multiple invests being watched carefully by the NHC.





Gonzalo and Hanna might be waiting in the wings...
Remember that back when the GFS was constantly developing a system in the Caribbean the Canadian model was developing Fay and a system behind it? It's worth remembering, because sometimes the Canadian is right... Note the wording from my last blog when I mentioned the possibilities the CMC was alluding to and everyone was watching the EURO and GFS.

"The next area is the suspect region in the SW Caribbean that the GFS likes...the Euro does not like and the Crazy Canadian turns into a North bound tropical system headed for South Florida. Note it's not the only area the CMC develops.............."
As I have shown before the Canadian Weather Centre site is an awesome site for satellite imagery.
America in all of it's beauty as seen on the Canadian site...







And, there is Fay...far to the right of the OBX near Bermuda
Seeing as the CMC was right in it's formation of Fay I thought it might be worth looking at what it has to say regarding the G storm...




You see there are a few more tricks up it's sleeve.

There's a lot going on in the tropics as you see... this is the lead system in the Atlantic.
Then there is the next system further out known as Invest 91L
I'll go over the various models and satellite imagery tomorrow. 
Obviously with so many fronts coming down the chance of a landfalling system is small as most would be swept out to sea. The only problem might be if we go into a period of Indian Summer where cold fronts take a break at the wrong time. As with most everything in life everything is in the timing... 




There is the smaller system approaching the islands that is looking like the G storm tonight.
Further out is a much larger system that will take longer to pull together (due to it's size) and most likely will form more to the south of where the G storm is. So... as much as I'm watching the next system I'm wondering on Hanna.
As always the most information anywhere is on the front page of Mike's Spaghetti Models.






A lot of sites I love but no site is like www.spaghettimodels.com it is a visual feast of tropical links, images and information.
You can see Fay rolling along here and you can see the next storm forming further out in the Atlantic.

You can see for yourself how busy the Atlantic is as there are 3 invests on the Navy Site.







Up close let's look at the contender for the G name...






I'd be surprised if this is not upgraded later tonight or tomorrow morning.
It's like yesterday once more in the Atlantic...
Thanks for your patience for my holiday when the tropics seemed to go BANG while my TWC was on mute (best way to watch it sometimes...) and I had a nice time with family and friends.
Sweet Tropical Dreams..