Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Not So Fast Bertha... Invest 93L Taking Her Time. Why that isn't necessarily good...

This morning's funktop satellite image shows the problem.
1. It lacks deep convection. Gone are the reds of last night & definitely no green there anywhere.
2. Look to the north and those dotted white clouds are loaded with Saharan Dust.

Let's take a look at a before and after picture of Invest 93L. 
The image on the left is last night & the image on the right is this morning.
Notice it's circulation looked better & it ingested that line of SAL to it's NW & then... whoosh went the good looks and it looked like it partied to hard in the middle of the night. Less of a stellar appearance and more exhausted, ragged & lacking convection.

Again image on the left looks like an eye was about to pop out ... 
The image on the right is after it coughed up too much SAL.. think pollen in the Spring in Georgia.

On the plus side it has style, rudimentary banding and a sense of a center. It has a weak low pressure center attached. It is moving slowly towards warmer water and less SAL.

I outlined the edges of the cooler water with a blue line... 
Invest 93L has to get past there... compare that with the image above of SAL
So the end game here is "she" forms further West 
that will drag the models & the cone further west
takes it for now through the Hebert Box that often spells trouble for South Florida

(that's HEBERT not HERBERT... never to be confused)

Many may think the fact that she is not Bertha today is good. It is good to say we have no hurricane today.  But, as I pointed out above the problem is that IF we had a tropical storm today and a Hurricane Bertha tomorrow it would be a lock on the Fish storm scenario and it would recurve up and out to sea... as we say a Fish Storm and I don't mean a Fish Burger but pescado frito. 

A system that goes slower, takes it's time until it reaches warmer water that has less Saharan Dust gets further west & when it makes that turn the chance of a landfall is more in play. That landfall would most likely be in the Virgin Islands near PR or the Lesser Antilles. A hurricane that makes that turn there usually does huge damage both in the islands and down the line with a second landfall. Not always .... many curve out to sea or die a slow death over Hispaniola. But, the ones that do are memorable.

Cleo made the history books. 
Islands, Haiti, Cuba, Miami... East Coast

Hugo (not to scare you but just an example)

Sometimes they don't recurve like George in 1998

And sometimes they curve out to sea early... 
....because they get strong early...

Sooooo.... a slower storm gets further West.
Remember that.
A stronger storm makes a turn faster.
Usually... but not always... but more often than not.

I think the NHC is doing a great job with this system. There is NO reason to rush to give it designation. Wait for it to get closer to land and/or develop a strong center with stronger convection pops out on satellite imagery. Taking their time to analyze the storm, the environment and the models is the way to go with a long tracking storm. What does confuse me is that they don't mention the SAL in their discussion of this Invest as it's apparent that it is literally taking a bite out of her... 

Note they do mention SAL with regard to other systems ... 
8AM Tuesday Morning

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line is shown below. 
Red line is newest models, white older ones.
Slower it takes to develop the further West it goes...

Track down the distant road depends on IF there is a cold front to pick it up and blow it away. It could still make the turn but some part of the East Coast could be in the way...down the road. Just something to think on while getting rid of that "El Nino is coming" song that was previously playing in your head. not pay much attention to every model that may imply a hit on PR or Miami or Carolina or NY or Cape Cod though I do think unless it goes into the Caribbean (a possibility) the Bahamas are the cross hairs. Nothing set in stone. Just keep watching and have a great day!

Besos Bobbi

Ps... I know love watching the tropics from Key West. Sunrise, cafecito & fast speed Internet... what a way to start the morning :) As for TD3 or Bertha it could be named at any time... when the NHC decides to however the track map being up on the Navy site is usually a good sign it's close to being designated and advisories are about to start soon.


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