Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Invest 97 Looking Better Today. NWS Shows Landfall in FL Panhandle on 7th Day..

There is a well developed and extremely visible circulation on some level in Invest 97. It really wrapped up today nicely. Pressures are low. Something is coming together or as we say "it has that look" and the NHC is scheduled to fly recon into it tomorrow IF it continues to "blossom" over night.

Conditions around Invest 97 are not bad... there is some shear there, but there is also the possibility of conditions becoming better. A sort of "high" exists there and it's a push me pull me set up.

There is dry air there hurting it.
It's in a semi protected pocket of low shear for now helping it.

Note that as the system would move into the Gulf of Mexico the blues go away and there is more shear... which is why this is forecast to stay weak...Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm.

Wind Shear as of 3:30 PM

Now let's look at the water temperature.

So many things affect a developing storm..
Jet Steam .. Shear... the water below it as much as the air above it.

Another view...
The water is definitely warm enough to support some tropical development currently.


Shows Karen wrapping up and moving to the NW for now... dry air around but not bone dry.

The big question here is not where it goes but as what?

It is DEFINITELY FORMING... might stay weak or develop and then weaken and merge with the front.

It is currently on the NWS maps which is about as good as gold.

It forms.. rides up into the GOM as a closed low.. let me say that over... A CLOSED LOW.

Shows a landfall in the Panhandle of FL which is inline with CLIMO tho some models take it up towards MS/LA.

Then..................gets really good.. moves way far inland up the Appalachians.. much needed rain and possible flooding all the way to Raleigh NC :)

Continues to ride up I95 all the way to New England.

Now...look back to one of the earlier storms this year.. a similar track.

Remember way back to the A storm when we thought this was going to be a wild, wicked hurricane season.

File:Andrea 2013 track.png

Now look at the models for this storm..

Look at the GFS Model Ensemble ...

And, remember patterns repeat often...

What are the intangibles here?

It hasn't formed yet. Where it forms will tell the story.
Timing...Hasn't formed yet...when it forms will tell the story.

Recon will mot likely go in tomorrow and it might be too early to call this a storm yet...or even a depression then.

The rain is in the forecast here in NC from the front ... will it have a tropical signature or be just rain captured by the frontal boundary brought north by the front?

Either way...there may be the potential for flooding inland somewhere...where ever it goes even if it doesn't have the beautiful name Karen.

Keep watching...way too soon to tell.

But what I can say is this... we definitely have something to talk about.

Jerry is in the Atlantic not much to talk about but it does have a name. The proverbial tree in the forest falling with no one noticing but a passing freighter..

On Facebook Mike shows other possibilities...

Join the discussion there or on Twitter... tweet me @Bobbistorm

Keep watching...

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps... latest model out put that just came out as I was finishing this post... meanwhile it still has to form.. for now it's still just an Invest with a lot of potential!


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