Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Tropical Depression 4 Forms In The Cape Verde Islands

Tropical Depression #4 has formed in the Cape Verde Island region and is in fact a Cape Verde Tropical Depression.

Exact wording from the National Hurricane Center: "...OUTER RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS..."

I'm wondering if a Depression that hits the Cape Verde Islands is considered for statistical purposes as if hitting land and making landfall. There's one for the experts...

It is most likely going to be a fish storm. A Cape Verde Fish Storm.. meaning it will curve far out in the Atlantic as most storms do that form so far out and dance up the middle of the Atlantic Ocean towards the Upper Level Lows.

A bigger problem might be a more unexpected scenario as the models and the NHC has left the door open that if TD did not become a big bad storm it could keep going more west than wnw and get further west. Some models showed it become "lost" completely. This might be a problem and can't wait to see newer runs of the NOGAPS and UKMET models to see if this has changed. Getting "lost" is nice but it means it would slide west with the lower level winds and therefore could become "found" closer to the islands and regenerate possibly as a bigger threat to the United States and the Islands. In this case bigger, faster is better for hopes of it swimming off to sea and not affecting anyone.

Let's hope that the soon to be Debby ramps up fast and furiously way too early in her young life and takes that Northwest Passage the Hurricane Center is forecasting and we don't have to worry about her slip, sliding slowly west under the radar and getting any closer to our particular part of the world. I'm not a big fan of Debby storms.. would like to see this one turn fast and swim away. And, if she becomes "lost" let's hope Debby does not get "found" as Fishy Debby works fine for me.

There are some showers down in the Carib, stormy weather that might need to be watched for chances of tropical formation later on if they persist. Looked good last night.

On a personal level I am real busy today and will try and be back later today to see where Tropical Depression 4 is and if it has a name and what the infamous models have to say.

A beautiful wave that spins coming off of Africa should never be ignored and written off... keep an eye on it even if your local mets want to write it's obituary it is only pre-release publicity and it could become a sleeper hit later in the forecast period. So, keep watching and keep an eye on where it is really going.

I'm actually more curious where Ernesto is personally..



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