Tropical Update ALA Bobbi for August 2006

Dateline: Miami, Home of Tropical Weather, The Miami Hurricanes and The National Hurricane Center.

Many reasons I don't believe this will be a very active season based upon things already seen from the vantage point of early August and not based on anything other than Bobbi watching the Water Vapor Loop a lot and trading thoughts with my hurricane friends on www.HurricaneCity.com.

1. There is a tremendous amount of dust.. Saharan Dust in the atmosphere in the Atlantic Ocean which will inhibit formation of tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean during the Cape Verde season. Mind you I am talking the formation of real viable systems that have the chance of becoming well known famous storms. That does not mean the NHC may not classify a few poorly developed storms that cough and sputter their way west.*

2. There is increased shear across the Atlantic Basin from the Pacific to the Atlantic. It is possible though no given that someone may want to google or look up El Nino on Wiki....

3. Close your eye and let me take you to the metoerologically messy world of El Nino... Unlike the Muse sisters or the mermaids of the deep we have the Wicked Witches of the land of Upper Level Lows. They love to paint the water vapor by waving their magic wands and creating kaliedescopic swirls that dance around in the ocean. Sometimes they toss the energy back and forth and all about in a game of Catch the Wind. Sometimes a mediocre wave comes along and gets enhanced by an Upper Level Low Witchy Woman but then...as quickly as the convection comes it goes away blown off by her jealous sister.

Hey..its a scary world out there for the poorly developed little wave that is already undernourished by the big bad SAL aka Saharan Dust Monster.

4. Water temps, despite all press releases to the contrary, are on the low side. Sorry Virgina but it is not hot, hot, hot in the Atlantic this year. Maybe not even later this year but so far... If you want hot, hot, hot try scubing diving in the Pacific. See #2 as a possibility. As the Great Wizard of Drudge says "Developing ...."

5. Cold fronts and enhanced shear pretty much shut down the Bay Of Campeche-slash-Gulf of Mexico garden variety tropical Storms often relied upon to boost up the Named Storm Numbers. Shear was so strong it was even hard to get storms forming from dangling stalled out fronts. The upside of this may be that fronts aka troughs may protect the Eastern Seaboard from future Cape Verde/Atlantic storms who will be cursed at by wannabe storm chasers and called Fish Storms.
Coastal dwellers will cheer and give thanks to the Trough Queens.

6. The Bermuda High has been if I may say so.... WIERD and well possibly needs deep psychological help what with the dizzying amount of Witchy Upper Level Lows or may have developed an allergy to dust. NOTE: Upper Level Lows are from Venus but SAL is from Mars.

7. Add in here some facts about the salt content in the North Atlantic and whether or not Noaa prefers Nova or Belly Lox on their morning bagel. Something about oscillation patterns that are condusive to tropical development and the memorable but not synoptically important years of 1971 and 1997.

8. Some years are hot and some are not. Just because gas stations and Publix bought generators and my brother Ronnie did as well does not mean that Hurricanes will come along to make them all feel they invested thei moeny wisely. They may have to wait a little longer for a return on their investment. Same goes for upping the budget of CNN and TWC to have a final shoot out at the Tropical Update Corral as to who is really the hurricane authority and who shot the sheriff. (Hint...Dave Schwartz).

9. Blame it on the War in Iraq. Blame it on Bush. Blame it on the Libertarians or the Green Party. Blame it on the Green Bay Packers or polar bears in Greenland or the Caribbean. Blame it on someone... Everyone blames something on someone...why not storm trackers and chasers. Blame it on the moon. Blame it on the bloggers..that's the new in thing to do!

10. *Just because a season is slower than 1995 and 2006 does NOT mean there won't be some killer, memorable storm like Betsy or Andrew. So stay tuned and keep kissing up to those relatives who bought the see through storn shutters and generators and say a whsipered thank you to the Witches off the ULL lands and we may get off with a "normal" hurricane season.

HINT: Remember September!