TD4? Maybe yes.. maybe no. Not a lot to write home about though

This was posted tonight... a lot of speculation.

To me.. looks really weak personally and in a pocket of very dry air.. we will see.

Just passing it along before I go to bed and dream on things not tropical, but just dreams.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT01 KNGU 090301
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/090000ZAUG06//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 50.0W TO 15.0N 56.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 50.0W HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTERLY FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY
AIR INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW CENTER INCREASING TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER EXPECT MODEL GUIDANCE TO ANALYZE THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ANTILLES WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT
FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.