Hurricane Harbor: 11 AM Advisory Updated. Major 120 MPH Cat 3 Hurricane Isaias Heads Towards Landfall Today along the Gulf Coastline ... Aiming At Florida Panhandle, Alabama & Inland into GA & the Carolinas with Flooding Dangers.

About as close as it gets!

Cat 3 - 120 MPH

Let me take you back to 1992...living on Miami Beach staring at TWC watching the loop of Category 5 Hurricane Andrew coming closer and closer with nothing to deflect it away nor weaken it. A new advisory came in. There was great excitement at TWC as John Hope announced the "good news" that Andrew was no longer a Category 5 Hurricane as the windspeed had gone down 5 MPH. You could see everyone was happy, sort of relieved some. I was not relieved some. I was not happy. It was still a high end Category 4.

I mean really??? Really??? Yeah, that happened and so did Andrew bringing total devastation at the coast, and places far inland in Homestead. A mean, lean fighting machine. Yes, it was upgraded back to a Cat 5 afterwards in post analysis, but I knew it was just as deadly as a strong Cat 4. But my point is when you have a Major Hurricane that has traveled far to get to your beautiful town....5 MPH doesn't really matter as gusts in a storm are always way stronger than actual sustained winds. Just the nature of the beast. Okay, you may feel "relieved" for about five seconds for each of those five miles per hour but you know it's coming. It's just offshore. It's on the way. Rain bands have begun to pass through your area and the sounds of the rain carried by the advancing hurricane winds are hitting your roof like bullets and people caught out in it run for cover. It's the Hurricane's calling card......the reminder for any who believe it won't make landfall, that it IS making landfall. The rains have begun, there is no turning back. I hope and pray anyone reading this from the area near landfall have totally prepared, gone to higher ground or are hunkered down in a safe spot.

This is no longer about IF

It's about WHERE and WHEN

and how strong it'll be by you.

Lastly I don't don't want to beat a dead horse, but I don't want people to die, because they thought they'd be safe as they don't live near the coast but far inland. They have elevation up in the beautiful mountains and foothills near a gentle, every flowing river. Life is good. The hurricane is making landfall down by the coat and moving up far from where they live to the Eaast of the Cone. Wrong. The Cone will verify, though I'm fairly sure it'll be pulled a bit more to the East as the NHC discussion has already hinted at that and the AI models and others are pulling a drop to the East. But, the rain will go where the rain will go carried by sometimes unpredictable flow of the rain and where the heaviest storms set up. Any place near a river or near an area that recently has had problems with flooding (such as up in the mountains of North Georgia) really needs to pay attention and know trouble could happen fast. I hope and pray I am wrong. But this is one of the biggest dangers of a landfalling strong, hurricane whether it's Cat 3 or Cat 2 at landfall really it's a mute point. You can't stop the storm surge nor can you stop the rain from falling.

Key Messages.

Also there are tornado concerns.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Takes you to this page.

Keep weather alerts on...

..in case of a Tornado

Google AI is excellent

(tho it can be wrong so ..

..double check always with NHC

and your local NWS

Current satellite image with lightning.

Note that mean feeder band.

The tail... way to the East of the eye.

Rains will fall to the East of Cone also.

Flash Flooding concerns.

That's it.

Close up above

...note how far East warnings go

on either side of the Cone.

Wider view of where it has been..

...and where it's going.

Again strong rain will be E of the Cone.

Again it's been carrying water, rain

storm surge from the BOC

It may surprise people...

hope not.

I'll update at 5 PM

Video I made earlier to explain the dangers

I went long on earlier in the blog.

This is impacting Florida.

So playing this beautiful song.

Seminole Wind... indeed.

***

Major Hurricane Isaias

Cat 3 - 120 MPH

Bigger pic below from Jim's post on X

Cone below.

Again Cone follows the center.

Cone follows strong center WIND.

Note the flooding dangers.

The rain, the flooding.

Hopefully not, possibly tornadoes.

Hope not but stay aware.

10 AM still valid before update.

You know what's worse than someone hyping a storm or a hurricane season? Someone telling you not to worry ....there's nothing to worry about "because El Nino" and there won't be a hurricanes. Never believe ever there is no chance in a hurricane "because Super El Nino" and what does a strong El Nino usually produce? A strong Major Hurricane. All that latent energy, bubbling hot waters in the Gulf not tapped by frequent hurricanes with upwelling. It's a dangerous set up and sadly this year it's here and it's real. And, some cities, some towns, some beaches will be pummeled by the dangerous storm surge of Isaias. And, even though the winds will come down as they always do once inland that storm surge will keep going, pushing inward finding every bay, cove and river and when water rises that's when the most deaths occur. That's what I worry on. I worry on people taking Isaias seriously after being told it wouldn't be that strong and that if it does become a hurricane it'll probably weaken as it approaches landfall.

It may weaken some between now and landfall, but that is not a given. And when the NHC says "weaken" they are talking on the wind speed and yet the storm surge and danger of flooding rains will go on and on. It has traveled the expanse of the Gulf from the cradle of the BOC all the way to the furthest point as it makes it's move towards landfall ... most likely on the Florida side of the Alabama/Florida line. People wonder on Pensacola or Destin or name a beach town on the beautiful Florida Panhandle and know that East of that town will get the strongest storm surge, the highest winds. And, yet the whole area from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle will get strong storms in bands moving inland. And, Tally as we call it in Florida is prone to tornadoes that spin up inside the bands.

I'll update after the 11 AM. I just wanted to touch base first and go a bit long on the lesson of Isaias a Major Cat 3 Hurricane headed towards landfall soon in an El Nino Year. I was not hyping when I said that could happen early in the year, Major Hurricanes happen....I was concerned people wouldn't stay prepared and alert. The stores sold out immediately on storm supplies as people stockpile less hurricane supplies and food when they are told "don't worry, big El Nino, nothing gonna develop" and I'll add old time Floridians know... it's the newbies who may be taken by surprise. I hope not.

Stay tuned.

Prepare.

Shows the EYE.

Perfect presentation considering everything..

Deep tropical moisture.

From EPAC

UP
into the Gulf

Headed Deep inland.

I beg you...take this seriously.

The name Isaias could be retired this time.

Lastly INLAND up in North Georgia where the land rises up towards the mountains, Tennessee and into the Carolinas (SC & NC) hope and pray there is no repeat of Helene in W NC nor Tennessse!

Back soon.