TS Fay in Atlantic. Strong Coastal Storm Off East Coast... Weather Impacting Carolinas North Today. Some Coastal Flooding in VA. Where Does IT Go & Is Gonzalo Forming by African Wave?

 

Let's start here...

Right to Left.

Invest 90L looks like Gonzalo wannabe...

(I know NHC busy with EPAC)

Little small storm in the middle is FAY

Because FAY came back as I thought she might.

Note the ITCZ with strong color.

Next we have our coastal storm.

Will look deeper at that soon.

Note the linkage between the Yucatan ...

..and the flow from the front.

EPAC just gone bonkers

Lastly but most important.

The High pressure (purple) is pressing down.

Capping it all and trapping it for now.

The Coastal Storm may be a looper.

Fay is a beautiful little spinner!

Officially they have Invest 90L at 70%

Why it's not higher or upgraded not sure.

I know NHC busy but check out loop below

Zoom in on the center like area...

Sure looks like a candidate for upgrade soon.

Here you can see Fay & 90L

Gonzalo?

As for the coastal storm, that really is the story today, it's not 100% clear where it will go and what impacts places will have from it as it is still evolving. There is a mid-level or upper level low over Appalachia that's swirling. You have high pressure to the North of the Coastal Low possibly trapping it ...capping it from moving further North and that could aid in the Nor'eater looping around, hanging around the coast. How close to the coast is the question and models, of course, disagree. But how can you have that many models not expect them to disagree and see different scenarios? It's one thing to watch 5 or 6 and another to deal with 101 models (AI and regular and ensembles) making it harder for those who rely heavily on models vs synoptics who are more able to tune out the "noise" when making a forecast.

I'll add "noise" is huge today as everyone is trying to make the best AI image to grab your attention away from a post that might actually explain with words what is really going to evolve.

IE Is this mostly a coastal event or is it possible inland cities and towns along the NY/CT border meaning lower Hudson River Valley or is this just an problem for Long Island and New England? Thxaere's just so many questions. And as it's early in Fall and most leaves have not fallen from the trees in that region they will get wet, top heavy and there may be more power outage issues than many realize far from the actual beach. 

Later today we should have a better idea, better forecast of exactly where the low forms and how it sets up in relation to the many weather factors that will get a vote in what happens as this storm develops into a September Nor'easter including "forward speed" of the Nor'easter. Also how far South it really goes into Florida, does it really make it to Cuba? Either way and if so watching the tail end of a front dangling down into hot tropical waters could help set up some spinner that could get a name ....way down the tropical road. 

When I say "many players" involved in the developing 2026 September Nor'easter take a look at this great map filled with all the players by Content Weather. It's very complicated........

More later today or tonight. 

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Note this song below comes from The Perfect Storm and the Perfect Storm was October and involved with Hurricane Grace. Note it was 1991 an El Nino was developing and they were only on the G storm in late October so in a strange way perhaps .... this year when we are in search of Gonzalo as we move into October that may be an interesting year to look at analog wise for this particular Nor'easter in late September. Nice song. Good book. Great movie. I even have a tee shirt ;) from it. Definitely the right geographical region of the month is a bit early. And nowhere near as strong an El Nino as we have now but it's an interesting analog in ways.