Updated 5 PM. TD NINE.Forms in Forecast to be Hurricane Isaias by NHC... Track Easier to See Than Intensity, Many Questions on Intensity.

 

From Zoom Earth ....

That's a lot of cities inland....

...in the path of torrential rain.

NHC has it as Hurricane rain then...

Main info.

Remember NHC generally "opens" conservative.

They have it attaining 100 MPH winds.

Tho could weaken some near landfall..

...often shear is there.

But too soon to really be sure.

Advisory 1 ya know...

Also the big game between 

Alabama and Georgia

scheduled for kickoff at 

1 PM Saturday.

In Alabama currently in the Cone.

And note that'd be a fast moving storm.

Or depression moving in with flooding concerns.

When you move UP inland there...

(a rare track)

with elevation you get flooding.

A bit concerning.

Either way this has the potential to bust

that 100 MPH 

tho currently I need to see some proof.

But I would not take it off the table

I'll be back later this evening with more info

from Recon and the NHC.

Cone adjustments happen ...

...nothing carved in stone.

Check on what you need...

...should soon to be Isaias

be on it's way to you.

For now..... TD NINE

Had a friend that loved this song...

....so did my mother lol.

Keep reading if you haven't done so today.

4 PM below, still relevant.

3 PM - 100% Red Hot.

Upgrade coming soon...

This is evolving amazingly fast.

7 hours ago it looked like this below.

Seven hours.

That "center" tighened up fast.

What that means in the long term...

...time will tell.

Need better info from Recon.

92L up above.

92E down below.

2 systems. 

Trying to develop.

Close together... 

92E losing the Invest race.

90%

Both should get a name.

Wondering how much fame though...

Going wide......

PS 92L is not by Tampa.

Tampa getting heavy rain.

Old front stalled out across Florida.

More fronts will dive down soon.

That's what the NWS says... 

92L consolidating in the BOC.

In the Atlantic Basin...we are at 100%

Ready to roll.

Upgrade of some kind coming soon...

Maybe at 5 or maybe 11 PM.

Time will tell ....

...and it's timing will tell the end game.

How fast it develops.

How fast it moves.

Timing.... always matters.

Especially in the Gulf.

Where you run out of time ..

..faster than in the MDR.

Mimic Image below

92L is settling in down in the cradle of the BOC where she has some protection from negative factors for now and more of an ability to pull it together. I'd say ISAIAS is on the way. But where will it go? Models show different scenarios though all have the same general direction showing us where the Cone will be for now. 

In the short term Eastward movement should be expected ... at some point a movement towards the North will begin. This to me would infer this named storm will be stronger vs messier in the beginning. Stronger storms generally go North faster than wobbly ones that wiggle around in circles hugging the coast. Always exceptions. The High Pressure to it's East should.... keep it away from Florida, but it's way too early for me to say that is what will happen. We are still in the early formation period. The point is the intensity estimates are all over the place. Again, once we have good data from today's recon sampling the atmosphere and tomorrow going into the ?? storm ?? and better info allows for better forecasts. I know it sounds dry and dull and boring, but it's the truth.

There are scenarios where Isaias can get into a sweet spot and take advantage of that and intensify more than many would imagine in this overly hurricane drought, but I do think the drought it going to be over and we will have a hurricane. Beyond that... not ready to say what kind of Hurricane. Not the NHC, but do think we hit hurricane status most likely.

I'll update later today or tonight, if and when the NHC updates and makes a Cone and gives discussion. Otherwise I'd just be talking rumors and suggestions and possibilities, I prefer giving more than hype.And, I will later.

Stay tuned....... stay aware and expect surprises, because it's October. Storms can get tricky in October. 

Be back soon........ Bobbi