Hurricane Harbor: 11 PM thoughts.......updated .......Invest 92L 80% Development BOC into the Gulf. Then What? New Orleans to Cedar Key Pay Attn ... Recon Set to Go In Tomorrow.

Leading with this as it's well written.

Good graphics.

Personally getting a bit tired of over hyped posts using wild colorful jagged fonts and the same RED ORANGE YELLOW colors screaming at me. I know AI is fun, but you do realize when you are making the graphic it almost always comes out like everyone elses right? There are exceptions. This seems to be wanting to form. All signs seem primed for something coming together in that cradle of BOC that has birthed many systems (Milton for one) and then it's a crap shoot where it goes and when. Some people have runaway with the ball insisting Major Hurricane while the conservative ones are saying Tropical Storm maybe Cat 1. I'd go with Category 1. Yes, tropically starved chasers in this part of the world are salivating over all the possibilities. With 1001 and models (both regular and AI) you can draw lines across every part of the Gulf.

Does it form fast?

Does it move fast?

Does it wander around hugging the coast of the BOC?

I still go with New Orleans to Cedar Key. I'd add in Lafayette it's got history this year.

A quick fast bend to the left or to the right can create chaos in preparation for all of the people lucky enough to live along the beautiful coastline there. A part of the South I truly love.

So stay tuned. Recon goes in tomorrow. We will know soon nuff ;)

Obviously watching the tracks that criss cross Mississippi and Alabama as some pull it up over the Carolinas vs the ones that take it North.

Waiting on Recon tomorrow.........

stay informed on the storm if you live anywhere near these spaghetti tracks! Nite.

Comparing this to what it looks like...
...tomorrow night.

Lots of moisture, lots.

Even if it stays weak...

...the rain totals, inland flooding

could be bigger than many realize.

That's a whole lot of moisture and...

..note again it's one region vertically

Stay aware and prepared.

Earlier in the day....still 80% by the way

92L 80% chances in 7 days
60% in 2 days.

WV loop below.

Let's look at models.

Will give my thoughts after that.

Been away a few days. Back now.

Good timing....

92L now has an 80% chance of development.

The above is the Euro.. Friday.

Below is the GFS .. Friday.

Typically faster in development.

Stronger.

Same day.

Worth noting Icon and others see development.

AI models so far like the chances.

Spaghetti Models in general agreement.

Going wide we see our Invest down below.

To it's NE we see a flow of moisture...

draped across the SE

That's the current set up.

Going wide below

There really is only one way for it to go.

IT would be ISAIAS

should it get a name.

But the wrinkle is...

...things change in real time.

Basically we have a stalled out frontal zone across Florida. Between the two orange/gold areas shown above. But much depends on timing. There's some models that lift it more to the North and then NNE or NE or North... . There's a dip in the atmosphere due to come down, that lifts it some and tries to grab it. Does the dip really "do" anything or does it stall out? How strong is that dip? How strong is our Invest then?

This is your typical Gulf set up in October when fronts have begun dipping down and systems in the BOC try to form. It always comes down to timing. Everything in life ...comes down to timing.

We have 80% chances of development, code red, in the BOC for a Gulf System

1 92L is very visibly trying to find some spin, find it's groove.

2 There's a huge stalled out front easily seen on the satellite imagery above.

3. It'll bobble around trying to find traction and possibly gain a name. The "I" name.

4. I'd watch out for odd surprises of any kind.

Timing.

Looping.

Sudden burst of energy and attempt to move faster.

5 The area from New Orleans to Cedar Key needs to pay attention to how this evolves in real time.

6. The timing and strength of any "dip down" matters. Every thing matters.

7. Recon should go in tomorrow and we should have actual hard data to work with vs models. Models will have more to work with........

There is a chance IF it pulls together and there's a window of opportunity it can move faster than expected. There's about the same chance it slowly, stalls, slides and sort of glides along dealing with shear and not the best conditions ....

And it can wobble around until it sees an opening. The question is does that window of opportunity, that window to develop allow it to develop? Maybe.

We will know more tomorrow. Definitely something to watch. Always best when models get real data!

Garbage in garbage out. Good data in, better data out.

Sometimes these systems surprise us.... it is October ;)