Hurricane Harbor: Updated as Promised! 11 PM............Invest 95L 70% Red in the Distant Atlantic ... Close in Questions and Possibilities. EPAC on the P Storm....

Scroll on down to the bottom.

Song and thoughts at 11 PM

I know you know how to scroll....

It's an interesting WV image.

Bottom left Priscilla in the EPAC

Zero% Yellow area in Gulf Close In

Various remnant waves and convection

Invest 95L far right.

I'm torn between leaving the blog the way it is now and updating this afternoon or going long and talking on my feelings on this odd 2025 Hurricane Season. No, not because we have not been hit by a horrific hurricane or numerous hurricanes but because Upper Level Lows have been more prevalent than Invests. But really trying to keep it together here and not go long on all the thoughts in my head I'm trying to keep inside rather than spray across my blog.

I'm in a quiet yet restless mood will see where that takes me today. Miami Dolphins play Carolina Panthers, my two home teams so to speak, so at some point today I'll be happy one won a game and as for the losing team I'm sort of used to them losing so won't be too upset. The Miami Hurricanes beat FSU last night, that was fun.

The Atlantic Tropical Basin has been largely unfriendly to development this year, whereas the EPAC is on the P storm and firing off more Invests as I type. The wide view of the Mimic shows this well. It also shows where things go once they get up above the Virgin Islands. Can I rule out a landfall on the US (Florida or Carolinas) no I can't rule out there's always a chance on any given day when suddenly steering currents stop, rearrange and open up a door for development and landfall. October is famous for loopers off the East Coast when steering currents go wonky then finally grab the storm out to sea, usually... But still the odds are in our favor. Florida is watching this one (even though they think they have a forcefield there and I pray they do) but it's of note that the Carolina weather Mets are watching this Invest more careful than normal. They can see "this might be a Carolilna storm" sometimes and ignore what they believe isn't so that's of interest. Though it's been aim for the Carolinas year and swoop out to sea in 2025. Well except for Chantal that actually made it inland to Raleigh and perhaps they are worried the end will be like the beginning and a strong cold front might grab it inland?

Just random thoughts. I'll post models this afternoon as we need a while for the Invest to get real Spaghetti going vs an occasion Sushi run.

Going to show the GFS, not because it's hitting any big city but actually because it is not. This has been the year of the Coastal Low off the Carolinas, Coastal Cruisers so to speak. And, in truth that's been keeping the coastline landfall free as the low that rides up and out grabs the next storm out in the Atlantic and kindly guides it out to sea.

See Carolina Low.....

....some named storm below.

10/11 above 10/16 below

An exclamation point from the GFS!

Something you rarely see.

Big storm out at sea.

Okay GFS does hit a city....

...but what kind of storm is that?

Tropical?

Subtropical?

Winter Storm ....

GFS Storm on the last day....

What will be?

In truth GFS shows the truth.

Fronts.

2 fronts one in FL one over Cuba

One further out at sea.

As for the Icon below

doesn't go out that far like GFS dreamer

The question mark or exclamation mark storm close in.

A solid small storm down in the Islands 10/11/25

Stay tuned...

Models messy but interesting today.

I will update the blog later.

*****ITS LATER... I'M BACK******

11 PM Sunday Night Thoughts....

And, I'm back. Wrote in a hardcore, hardback notebook tonight. Sometimes you have to be honest even if just in your diary ;) What a day I got to watch the Fins play the Panthers, my two "home teams" and predictably the Panthers fought back from in the 2nd half and the Fins for whatever reasons fell apart. Panthers won! Amused. Sad for Fins, but more sad that they are in this deep dive into mediocrity with some incredible players ...real talent.... and yet, they lose and they lose. Yet, people love them and you can't always stop loving someone or a team like Fins but always have low expectations. Buy I do follow a few other teams always loved the Green Bay Packers to name one.... few others. Love Football!

Football is like the song in this blog today, and so is tropical meteorology. There's a wave, a good wave and yet it's a wanting wave because in truth nothing has really changed and we are only deeper into the season and unless it can pull a rabbit out of a hat, it's going to curve away with a name and maybe some ACE out in the North Atlantic if it gets there. Lots of IFs. You can see the last wave that tried unmarked closer to the Islands (don't confuse them) ......we will see tomorrow.

Talk on the CAG waking up which I can see as it's been bulking up on the Orange Juice, maybe a bit of Ruby Red Grapefruit Juice thrown in and a few Maraschino Cherries dropped in! NHC has the wave tonight at 70% in 7 Days and 50% chances of development in 2 days for Invest 95L.