PTC 9 NHC Puts Out a Cone! Hurricane Humberto Spins. If In Cone Review Your Emergency Kits, Plans & Supplies. Rain Maker Could Bring Flooding.

 

PTC 9 it is!

Forecast to be Imelda.

This is the state of the tropics 9/26/25

Humberto is a Cat 3.

I'm not discussing it here.

But it's a beautiful spinner.

And could help steer Imelda.

Will discuss that tomorrow.

Long awaited, much anticipated PTC9

Watches and Warnings are up for the Bahamas.

Now that PTC9 aka 94L has moved into the water, off of the land masses that were inhibiting her development we should see it come together sooner rather than later. The wrench in this forecast is with regard to forward speed at the end of the road. There are some models that show that Imelda slows down and loops or stalls or moves ridiculously slow and the result would be heavy rain over days depending on where this happens and if it happens. This is the first Cone and things change often over time as the situation evolves with the actual development of forecast Tropical Storm Imelda.

I like to put Wind Probs in.

Will compare tomorrow evening...

...how much they may change.

There is great uncertainty on end game.

Landfall. 

There are a whole lot of wind probs.

All the way down to Bahamas...

(that's obvious)

South Florida...even Tampa oddly.

1st Advisory they go wide...

...after that it gets narrowed down.

This far out all the bases seem covered!

Basic points from discussion. NHC explains that it's beginning to develop charasterics of a cyclone and in while it's in the developing stages still..... they have put up PTC9 as it will be impacting the Bahamas in the short term...... before we figure out what the long end road is regarding possible USA landfall. Short term movement and strength of PTC9 is more certain, the problem comes down the road regarding how fast her forward speed will be and that is one of the keys to the forecast. A slower movement allows for more interaction with Humberto, both by wind shear and track. A faster movement takes her across the warm Gulfstream towards landfall near the Carolinas. I said "near" as Georgia should pay attention as should North Florida just in case, in my opinion. The NHC points out that many areas far from the center of the track will have rain impacts with weather related to PTC9 including Cuba and Jamaica. I add those in as it shows you that while it's a weak, developing, small system it has a large weather implications across a wide area.

Nothing worse that a slow moving hurricane offshore, lingering along the coastline with a rain shield that goes deep inland and rains steadily for days, before it finally makes it's move to the coastline. Let's look back at Major Hurricane Florence that hit this area in 2018. It did extensive damage from flooding and more so had a high death toll, yet it came in as weak, but very wet, shadow of it's former self. If Imelda stalls, slows and does something similar we could also have a deadly flooding set up.

Originally all the talk was Florence would slam into the Carolinas as a  Major Hurricane and there was a bit of panic in my area as to what such a hurricane plowing fast and deep into the Piedmont would do.  And, yet it slowed, almost stalled while rain spread inland and the wind speed came down to a weaker storm, a Tropical Storm and it began wandering down towards Myrtle Beach in South Carolina. The damages from Florence were off the charts and the flooding, death toll and misery from flooding so bad that it actually flooded further inland in cities where people down by the coast had been evacuated to and had to be evacuated again. And, I do remember Jim Cantore and his crew were stranded at the beautiful coast of NC as they could not immediately get out.as all roads, highways in and out were underwater. 

Just an example to see how slow....

...Flo moved.

Still the high death toll from flooding...

...was from a "weak" storm.

Don't equate strength with death and damages.

Imelda in 2019 was a small storm.

It had a small track.

I was sure it would form and said so...

...way before it was upgraded.

People called it a "junk storm"

45 MPH winds.

7 deaths.

Heavy flooding.

Some reports over 40 inches of rainfell.

Meanwhile the HWRF has a Cat 2 at landfall.

Not really expecting that.

But I want people to understand the flooding threat.

Looks like it's might develop a Scorpion's tail!

Big, strong Humberto to the right!

Just remember Imelda can slam into the Carolinas, according to one scenario, smashing into Myrtle Beach or Wrightsville NC and moving inland. Even with that scenario it could slow down and rain for days and stall over land. Or it could be snapped back out to sea by Humbeto. And, one scenario within this scenario shows it moving out, stalling off the coastline. This would not be good. Obviously. Actually if not the SC/NC border beaches many storms like to make landfall at McClellanville, near Charleston SC. Rain would move deep into and into the Carolinas if such a landfall verified.  Really, at this point, nothing can be ruled out. 

So we have two scenarios (at least) one slams into a Carolina Beach Town and the other scenario is that it slows down, begins raining itself out somewhere most likely between SC and NC both can bring beach erosion and flooding!  Hurricane Winds if some outlier models verify.

Another question is how close does it get to Florida and even offshore as it can up the ante for heavy storms and some flooding in coastal towns. There are a lot of coastal towns in Florida from Jax down to Miami..... think about it. Hopefully it sails by, kicking up the surf for all the locals and my kids to spend the day at the beach watching the surf and feeling the wind.

Let's not forget the Bahamas where as you can see below ...there are watches up.

Truth is we don't know what we don't know.

There are many intangibles with PTC 9

There's a slow moving low/front

ULL parked inland near TN/NC

There's a Cat 3 Hurricane to it's East.

Warm water.

How well aligned is it once it forms.

We have only just begun with questions.

So check back Saturday Night.

Will update then.

Pay attn to Phil Ferro in SFL

Allan Huffman in NC

Mike from Mike's Weather Page.

And always, always, always...

..follow your local NWS

and the NHC!

They are the bottom line!

Stay aware and prepared.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X